David Bleiler: With The Bourne Ultimatum opening this weekend, audiences will be as pumped as its hunky star Matt Damon for what may be the best movie of the summer… it’s certainly the best adrenaline rush around. Debuting on more than 3,500 screens, this should top the $16,600 per screen average accumulated by The Bourne Supremacy in 2004. Let’s call this about $18,000 per screen for a powerful $63.0 million opening. If it’s in this ballpark, this could be the eighth movie this summer to reach the $200 million mark.
Other openers falling way behind include Hot Rod, a teen comedy with no marquee value names, that should open in the $11-$12 million range; from Disney, Underdog, a live-action version of the popular 1960s TV cartoon series, that again has no bankable names in the cast and should see grosses in the low $10 millions (though this does have the potential to do more); and the girl-power Bratz, based on the successful line of dolls, that should see similar numbers as Nancy Drew for about a $6.5 million opening.
Look for good holdovers for the comedy Chuck and Larry, the musical Hairspray and the perennial Harry Potter; while The Simpsons will probably fall near the 50% mark due to its huge opening last week. Next weekend will see the last of the summer’s big releases: Rush Hour 3 and Stardust. Where did the summer go?
David Gorgos: Though there are plenty of dogs coming out during the dog days of August (including one literal dog this week), there are also a few blockbusters that aim to keep summer's numbers high. The Bourne Ultimatum is yet another threequel that should do similar business to its previous installment, especially since the star, director and positive reviews are the same as before.
Has anyone actually watched "Saturday Night Live" lately? Me neither. I don't even know who Andy Samberg is. But he gets his big-screen breakthrough with a high-concept movie about a stuntman. Either they were saving this character for the big screen, or it wasn't even good enough for the show. Unless there's something about Samberg I don't know, expect typically moderate yet profitable numbers.
Underdog reminds me a lot of The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle: same source material, same live action / animation blend, and same total lack of interest from America. It will do better than Bullwinkle if only because kids prefer dogs to moose and squirrel. Bratz hardly rates a mention, and will be quickly forgotten along with other tween programmers.
The Simpsons Movie should have a decent hold since it's a family-friendly non-sequel. Other films have been holding on well, possibly due to good word-of-mouth. And finally, is it me, or do the commercials for Stardust make it look like a high school version of Ladyhawke (or any of those mid-'80s fantasies, really). Is it computer graphics that makes it look like Michelle Pfeiffer hasn't aged a bit in 20 years?
| Film | Gorgos | Bleiler |
| The Bourne Ultimatum | $62.1 million | $63.0 million |
| The Simpsons Movie | $42.9 million | $36.6 million |
| I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry | $10.5 million | $11.8 million |
| Hot Rod | $12.8 million | $11.3 million |
| Hairspray | $10.0 million | $10.5 million |
| Underdog | $12.5 million | $10.3 million |
| Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix | $10.6 million | $10.2 million |
| Transformers | $6.3 million | $6.6 million |
| Bratz | $5.1 million | $6.5 million |
| No Reservations | $7.0 million | $6.0 million |
Content © TLA Entertainment Group
The Bourne Ultimatum picture © Universal Studios
No comments:
Post a Comment