David Bleiler: If nothing else, at least all the damn sequels are now done with for the summer. Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker return in Rush Hour 3, six years after their last adventure. The first film in 1998 brought in a per screen average of $12,500, and the second grossed a big $21,600 per screen. Advance word on this is that’s it’s not up to par, despite some amusing bits in the trailer, so let’s call this in-between the first two films, which would translate to about $17,000 per screen for $51.0 million opening weekend.
Technically a sequel though none of the original cast is returning, Daddy Day Camp has Cuba Gooding, Jr. taking over the Eddie Murphy role in Daddy Day Care. From the trailers alone, Murphy made one of his smartest career moves by not involving himself with this project; the same can’t be said for Gooding, who continues to suffer from the Oscar® jinx since his win in 1996. This shouldn’t see any higher numbers than the very low teens.
The other big opening this weekend is perhaps the most difficult film of the summer to gauge. Stardust, with Robert De Niro and Michelle Pfeiffer, is unlike any other release this year. It has elements of romance, fantasy, adventure, sci-fi and comedy – what do you compare it to? Call it about $13.5 million for opening weekend… just because.
Of the holdovers, The Bourne Ultimatum may not see a 50% decline in its second weekend, so we’ll call it $39.5 million. Weekday numbers have been very good and word of mouth continues to be strong.
David Gorgos: Chris Tucker, the most reclusive star since Greta Garbo, stars in just his 8th feature film this weekend, alongside the great (but aging) Jackie Chan. Neither has been very successful at the box office without each other, and I can't help but think that interest is waning. Then again, Live Free or Die Hard proved that there is an appetite for comic action throwbacks, and Bourne (as well as Rush Hour 2 6 years ago) proved that films can open big in August. I'm going with my gut at about $14,000 per screen, though the math says it should be much higher.
Fantasies that aren't based on established franchises tend to be disappointing at the box office, though they often find new life on home video. I'm not sure if Stardust is enough to tear me away from the free semi-nude pictures of Claire Danes i'm seeing on the gossip sites.
Sequels with all-new casts tend to do disastrously (Dumb and Dumberer anyone?), so don't expect much from Daddy Day Care, despite it being the feature directorial debut of that cute whippersnapper Fred Savage from "The Wonder Years." (He's 31 now. Yikes!) Also opening under the radar is the PG-13 Lion's Gate vampire thriller Skinwalkers, which will quickly move to unrated DVD after a run in appropriately dark theaters.
| Film | Gorgos | Bleiler |
| Rush Hour 3 | $44.8 million | $51.0 million |
| The Bourne Ultimatum | $31.9 million | $39.5 million |
| Stardust | $11.7 million | $13.5 million |
| The Simpsons Movie | $13.3 million | $11.3 million |
| Daddy Day Camp | $6.1 million | $11.0 million |
| Underdog | $6.5 million | $6.5 million |
| I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry | $5.4 million | $6.3 million |
| Hairspray | $5.1 million | $5.5 million |
| Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix | $4.9 million | $5.3 million |
| No Reservations | $3.6 million | $3.6 million |
Content © TLA Entertainment Group
Stardust picture © Paramount
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