Thursday, August 23, 2007

Box Office Predictions 8/24/07 - 8/26/07

David Gorgos: Why people used to settle for action heroes like Steven Seagal is beyond me. Under Siege 2 is awesome, but man, how much better it would be with Jason fucking Statham. He carried last year's terrific action-comedy Crank, and nothing against Jet Li, but I expect War to garner similar box office numbers... maybe a bit lower, because this film just doesn't look quite as good.

Critcs nationwide are wondering why the directors of American Splendor would follow up with the innocuous The Nanny Diaries. Me too. Expect mild results. Wildly popular in England, Mr. Bean just never caught on in the states. Now aimed at a younger audience, Mr. Bean's Holiday (which looks like a dumbed-down Tati film) may play to nearly empty theaters. Though not as empty as those showing Resurrecting the Champ, a low-key drama with almost no buzz whatsoever.

The wildcard this week is September Dawn, an anti-Mormon flick aimed at the Christian market. Being liberal and athiest, I never see any of the marketing for these films, but somehow they always get the faithful to turn out. I'll guess that they get about $4100 per screen for this one, and then brace for something unexpected.

The most notable holdover is the returning champ Superbad, which with good word-of-mouth should have a mild drop of just over 40% and hold onto the #1 spot easily.

Our Predictions
Film Gorgos
Superbad $19.2 million
The Bourne Ultimatum $10.7 million
Rush Hour 3 $10.2 million
War $9.4 million
The Nanny Diaries $7.0 million
Mr. Bean's Holiday $4.7 million
The Simpsons Movie $3.8 million
September Dawn $3.4 million
Hairspray $3.0 million
Resurrecting the Champ $2.9 million
Theater counts obtained at www.boxofficemojo.com

Content © TLA Entertainment Group

War picture © Lions Gate

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