Showing posts with label Commentary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Commentary. Show all posts

Thursday, February 5, 2009

The Original Video-on-Demand

Photo: © Norman McGrath

Formerly the Museum of Television & Radio, The Paley Center has two locations (NY and LA) where anyone can view thousands of classic (and not so classic) TV shows at the flip of a switch. Queued up at a mainframe and beamed to individual sets, it not only predates Hulu and Comcast on-demand but surpasses them with the breadth of offerings. (YouTube may have millions of videos, but they're mostly on the DIY level rather than professional commercial productions).

My first visit there, during my early '90s collegiate era, I arrived armed with selections jotted down from pre-world-wide-web research, and instantly became one of the few to witness the only episode of "Turn On." Ahead of its time, yet also painfully unfunny, it took the rapid-fire gags of "Laugh-In" to an extreme postmodern level. Later shows like "Monty Python's Flying Circus" would crib such concepts ad sketches without beginnings or endings and credits shown out of order, while "Tim and Eric Awesome Show Great Job" would crib the ironic lack of punchlines... or intentionally unfunny ones. Best part of "Turn On"? The parade of headache commercials by the show's sponsor. Most appropriate.

Next up was the second, and final, episode of "You're in the Picture," Jackie Gleason's ill-fated game show. Reception was so bad that he cancelled the show in its second week, live on air. Rather than play the game, he pulled out a chair, fired up a cigarette or twenty, and ad-libbed a half hour of apologies for various failings throughout his career. No wonder he was so well-liked!

The great disadvantage to this collection, of course, is that you have to travel to one of the coasts to see it. There is a small amount online at www.paleycenter.org but it pales in comparison to other websites. So until Hulu, Netflix or your local cable company can offer such delicious rarities, video-on-demand will be left wanting in my book.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Oscar the Grouch

I saw 7 in theaters, this year. I think that's a new personal best.

I should qualify that. I don't really have the same taste, personally, as the Academy; I tend to watch movies in theaters specifically because they demand a giant screen and kicking sound system, less because they're objectively good movies. I suffer from no illusions that My Bloody Valentine 3D will get an award (though it's a damn fun little film if you're in any way a fan of 80s slashers) but I'd rather pay 30 bucks to see that than, say, Doubt (with dialogue that Merchant & Ivory would have found overwrought and costumes that would make the History Channel blush). So it's unusual for me to have that much overlap with the stuff that actually gets nominated. Whatever, that's what DVDs are for.

BEST ACTOR
Who Will Win - Sean Penn, because California's anti-gay Prop 8 will be fresh in the minds of the Hollywood Elite.

Who Should Win - Mickey Rourke. The Wrestler was not a happy movie by any stretch, but it's unquestionably one of the best performances of Rourke's career.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Will Win - Heath Ledger. Even if he was still alive, it was a riveting performance, easily the best in The Dark Knight.

Who Should Win - Honestly? Heath Ledger. Sucks to be Robert Downey Jr.; against just about anyone else he'd get it, but Ledger really pulled out all the stops.

BEST ACTRESS
Who Will Win - Meryl Streep. Doubt is An Important Movie™ and Streep is An Important Actress™.

Who Should Win - Meh. Hollywood is never known for giving women good roles in general, but this year was particularly uninspired on this front.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Will Win - Someone other than Marisa Tomei, so who cares.

Who Should Win - Marisa Tomei, for committing completely to an unflattering role and making it come to life. Pity that our culture punishes sex workers.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who Will Win - This one's a tough call, but I'm gonna give the edge to Wall-E. With the first half hour being dialog free, it would have been easy to make missteps, but they pulled it off with grace and aplomb.

Who Should Win - Don't get me wrong, Wall-E is a work of art and a milestone for the ages, but In Bruges deserves at least an honorable mention here.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who Will Win - Another tough call because none of them stand out as the obvious choice. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Slumdog Millionaire, with no "who SHOULD win" entry because, frankly, none seemed especially better than the others.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Wall-E. Period.

BEST DIRECTING
Who Will Win - Danny Boyle for Slumdog. Of the five picks, Slumdog is the only one that shows a real variety in directing styles and manages to still remain coherent as a picture.

Who Should Win - Jon Favreau for Iron Man. (Hey, I can dream, can't I?)

– Tovarich

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Award Fatigue

Ratings for all awards shows have been slipping for years, so this isn't exactly a new concept. But even around the TLA offices, where awards-season buzz has continued unabated through thick and thin, the apathy has become palpable. To wit: Not a single Golden Globes party has been scheduled by any of our employees. And I'm not even upset about it Why is this happening?

  • Celebrity Culture Used to be, the news was full of news, and only the occasional variety or talk show would delve into the movie business. Now, the movies are the news, and celebrities from Angelina Jolie to Kevin James are overexposed even before their movies are released. Shows like The Oscars were your chance to see them with their guards down, as real (yet undeniably fabulous) people. No more.
  • Everyone's a Critic Do I really need the Golden Globes to confirm that Slumdog Millionare is a fucking great picture? I've already had 20 people tell me I need to see it. Hell, the homeless guy down the street hasn't been to a movie in three decades and even he's telling me to go see it.
  • Too. Many. Awards. I'm not talking about Cinematography and Editing, which are actually among my favorites. I'm talking about the Indie Awards, the Film Critic Circle Awards, the Extradited Eskimo Awards. Half the awards are doled out before the films even play in Philly! I think the reason the Golden Raspberry Awards (pictured above) are gaining in popularity is because it's the only organization doing something different than the rest.
  • Time's Up Comics like to joke about the epic length of the Oscars, but somehow back in the '70s, they got the show done an hour earlier, with full dance and song numbers, and no need to cut off the speeches early. The speeches are the best part! Honestly, I look at old broadcasts and I can't tell what they're doing differently. Yesterday I listened to The Beatles on my iPod and "Eleanor Rigby" clocks in at 2 minutes and 2 seconds. Oasis can't even get to the first lyric by then. Time used to be more precious.

That said, I'm sure I'm going to be on my couch on Sunday night, watching the stars get drunk during the Globes. But it feels more like an obligation than a joy. Would I even be watching if I didn't still work in the industry? Are you watching?

© TLA Entertainment Group

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Adventures in Marketing

HBO has just announced the DVD for George Wallace, a 1997 made-for-HBO movie that garnered some acclaim. Here is the original VHS art:

And here is the new DVD art:

I'm not sure what's more surprising: That Angelina Jolie's rise has been so meteoric that I can't even remember a time that she would not be on the box cover, or that Gary Sinise was ever popular enough to anchor the cover all by himself.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Thursday, September 4, 2008

What's your favorite movie?

The Ladies Man Roger Ebert posed this question on his blog, and for once I have an answer. I've found it very helpful in life to have stock answers for commonly asked questions. How are you? Fine. What's up with the Phillies this year? Inconsistent hitting. Why'd you become a vegetarian? I'm a finicky eater. And when someone finds out I work for a video company, people perk up and either ask "What's good right now?" or "What's your favorite movie?" Nothing is worse than watching someone hem and haw at a fairly easy question, so I have a stock answer that also usually leads to a pretty animated discussion. (Never answer Citizen Kane, Lawrence of Arabia or Gone with the Wind as the conversation will come to a crashing halt.)

The greatest movie ever made is Rear Window. Two deep characters that are impossible to not fall in love with, the sassy comic relief of Thelma Ritter, and a self-reflexive deconstruction of filmmaking and voyeurism in the film's perfect construction. Whenever this film appears on TV, I end up dropping everything and sitting down and watching it all the way through, and I can't say that about any other movie. It never gets old.

But my favorite movie is Jerry Lewis' The Ladies Man, a revelation that inevitably leads to discussion of Jerry and not the actual film. He carries a lot of cultural baggage, so I have to beg people to please, simply watch his movies. Interestingly, his essential book The Total Filmmaker outlines many tenets of comedy directing, culled from lectures he gave when teaching a film school course. While he was giving those lectures, he was directing One More Time, the nearly unwatchable sequel to Salt & Pepper, and seemingly ignoring every single lesson from his course.

But earlier in the '60s, Lewis was taking his inspiration from Frank Tashlin and producing some of the most innovative, insane and even breathtaking comedies since the silent era. The Ladies Man in particular had the innovation of "video assist," a hookup to the camera that provided a live feed that would become commonplace in just a few short years. It also boasted a massive indoor set that, in the photo above, looks like a dollhouse built to human scale complete with a functioning elevator. This set allows Lewis to set up beautiful physical comedy throughout the house unencumbered by the usual laws space and physics.

Interesting that, for me, two of the most cinematic films ever made take place almost entirely on two single sets. It's the opposite of the massive vistas that are always rewarded come Oscar time. Speaking of Oscars, despite co-hosting the ceremonies several times, Jerry Lewis has never been honored. How about throwing an award his way, perhaps the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award for his tireless commitment to the MDA?

© TLA Entertainment Group

Monday, June 9, 2008

Brain-dead packaging by Paramount

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Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Favorite MPAA ratings

Sorry for the lack of updates; we at TLA have been working under the twin deadlines of a holiday catalog and the launch of our new store layout (check it out, it's pretty damn sexy). But I did find time to put in my two cents on a wonderful blog entry over at Matineer.

It's a quick column about one of my favorite subjects, MPAA ratings, and lists some of their favorites. In the comments section, I added many of my own favorites, including "Godzilla vs. Biollante: Rated PG for traditional Godzilla violence" and "The Education of Little Tree: Rated PG for language and thematic elements including old fashioned discipline." Have fun with it, and feel free to post your own either there or here.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Monday, August 27, 2007

The Hi-Def Format War

The terrific online critic James Berardinelli has written my favorite piece so far on the HD-DVD / Blu-Ray format war. It is concise and compelling.

It also got me thinking on a deeper level of conspiracy theory: Is Microsoft intentionally sabotaging the hi-def DVD format to position hi-definition downloads as the industry standard?

© TLA Entertainment Group

Monday, August 13, 2007

Tony Wilson and Merv Griffin tributes

One of the great entertainers, creators and talk show hosts died this weekend. Merv Griffin, creator of "Jeopardy" and "Wheel of Fortune", succumbed to a recurrence of prostate cancer at age 82. I knew him best at an impressionable age as the host of his eponymous talk show for over two decades. He was always able to balance the safe with the edgy, including Andy Kaufman appearances as well as a decidedly anti-Vietnam War sentiment. His style was very similar to Johnny Carson's, with an innate ability to put his subjects at ease and bring out the best in his guests. But where Carson turned to humor and sketches, Merv preferred song and theatre, frequently performing numbers that came from the heart. He later became a real estate and casino tycoon, and his Resorts Atlantic City has taken about $200 from me over the years. I don't hold that against him though. No truth to the rumor that Merv's last words were, "Ooooooooooh," but he did joke that his epitaph would read, "I won't be right back after this message."

Another influential entertainer of sorts passed away this weekend. Tony Wilson, the English music promoter responsible for the "Madchester" scene in the '80s and '90s, died of kidney cancer at age 57. Without him, we may have never heard of Joy Division, Happy Mondays, or even the Sex Pistols, to whom Wilson gave their first TV appearance. Most of us know him best as the subject of Michael Winterbottom's terrific 24 Hour Party People, which with expert period detail puts you right in the middle of that vibrant music scene... or at least, what anyone can remember of it. I can't think of a fitter tribute than rewatching my DVD and then spinning some Factory records, though I'll pass on the E for tonight.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Is It Too Early to Wine & Dine with Oscar®?

Those who don’t follow the Academy Awards®, or who think the entire idea of award giving to be silly or unprofessional, can’t and probably will never understand the obsession that those of us have who do follow this admittedly shallow, yes, but nevertheless entertaining and hypnotizing glamour-fest. Are the Oscars® more often than not a popularity contest? Yes… Are the Oscars® wrong on occasion? Yes… (I still haven’t forgiven the Academy for Crash.) Is it an old boys’ club ruled by archaic principles and mores? Sometimes. But they’re also damn fun to follow, and even more fun to try to predict.

Nearing the end of the summer movie season may not be the best time to seriously look at contenders, for the majority of nominees won’t be released until November and December. But, what the hell, let’s get a jump on it before everyone else, stick our toes in the water, and leave ourselves wide open for public ridicule (not the first time, not the last).

Looking ahead at the release schedule, the prestige films of the year look to include Charlie Wilson’s War, a political drama with a Washington D.C. and Afghanistan backdrop, starring three Oscar winners, Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts and Philip Seymour Hoffman. It’s being directed by Mike Nichols, and the screenplay adaptation is by Aaron Sorkin. The story follows a Texas congressman secretly involved with rebel fighters. Being released just months before the primaries seems an ideal time.

There’s another big-ticket item due in December with an Afghani backdrop: Lions for Lambs, with the pedigree cast of Robert Redford, Tom Cruise and Meryl Streep. And, Redford is directing. This involves a U.S. Senator (Cruise), a journalist (Streep) and a college professor (Redford), all affected by two injured soldiers in Afghanistan. Looks like politics will be taking it on the chin this holiday season.

If there’s one film that appears to be a cinch for Oscar® attention, it’s Elizabeth: The Golden Age, director Shekhar Kapur’s follow-up to his brilliant 1998 costume epic Elizabeth. Cate Blanchett (who should have won that year as Best Actress) returns as the monarch, and if you’ve seen the trailers for this new film, just give her the Oscar now. Geoffrey Rush also returns as a court advisor, and Clive Owen as Sir Walter Raleigh and Samantha Morton as Mary, Queen of Scots, join the cast.

Positive buzz is already humming for a few films that will see September and October releases, including the Coen brothers’ latest, No Country for Old Men, starring Tommy Lee Jones, Javier Bardem and, in what is being touted as a breakthrough role, Josh Brolin. It’s the story of a hunter who unwittingly becomes involved with stolen money and drugs. The plot sounds like it may not necessarily enrapture a lot of Academy voters (more Barton Fink than Fargo), but critics should eat this up, and word is that Tommy Lee Jones is a potential Best Actor nominee (this would be the Supporting Actor winner’s first in that lead category).

Halle Berry and Benicio Del Toro are getting great notices for Things We Lost in the Fire; Joaquin Phoenix, Mark Ruffalo and Best Supporting Actress winners Jennifer Connelly and Mira Sorvino could all see nominations for the weepie Reservation Road, about two married couples dealing with the death of a child. Trailers are just now showing in theaters for Ridley Scott’s American Gangster, with Russell Crowe as a New York City cop and Denzel Washington, who appears to have the meatier role, as a gang lord, and this looks like it’s Oscar®’s particular cup of tea.

Michael Caine goes full circle by playing the Laurence Olivier part in Kenneth Branagh’s remake of Sleuth, with Jude Law cast in the part originally played by Caine in the 1972 classic, for which Olivier and Caine were nominees (let’s hope Law has more luck than the last time he reprised a Caine role, Alfie). Another remake could sit well with voters: 3:10 to Yuma, based on the 1957 semi-classic western with Glenn Ford. It now stars Christian Bale (who’s already showing his Best Actor chops in Rescue Dawn), Russell Crowe, Peter Fonda, and, in a show-stopping turn that will take everyone by surprise and, hear it here first, should earn him a Best Supporting Actor nomination, Ben Foster as a truly villainous sidekick.

Films already released that could be in play include Hairspray, a marvelously entertaining musical romp that could see a nomination for John Travolta’s drag routine; The Bourne Ultimatum, arguably the best movie of the summer, should see a few tech nominations; and La Vie en Rose, if nothing else, should see a Best Actress nom for French actress Marion Cotillard, who is superb as singer Edith Piaf. Another Best Actress nominee could be Julie Christie for her unsentimental portrait of an Alzheimer’s patient in the gripping Away from Her. Michael Moore could see his second Oscar® for the great documentary Sicko.

The best film released this year to date, Zodiac, probably will go unnoticed by Oscar® voters due to its early release, unless Paramount can pull off a great marketing campaign.

And the film that I personally have the highest hopes for arrives at Christmas, so here’s hoping that Tim Burton’s Sweeney Todd is a big, glorious present for one and all. Based on what could be considered one of the ten best Broadway musicals ever, this adaptation of Stephen Sondheim’s masterpiece has Johnny Depp stepping into the shoes of the murderous barber Todd, and Helena Bonham Carter reprises the role first made famous by Angela Lansbury as Mrs. Lovett, the meat pie shop proprietress whose secret recipe is the murdered customers whose throats have been slit by her razor-yielding lover Sweeney. And all to music!

Oscar® and Academy Awards® ©A.M.P.A.S.®

Image from No Country for Old Men ©Miramax. Our use of said picture to illustrate its Oscar® viability will undoubtedly jinx the film from being nominated for anything.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Friday, July 27, 2007

Best Summer Ever? Hardly!

As we continue to see more and more box-office records broken, maybe it’s time for a little historical perspective. Yes, we already have three films grossing $300 million (Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, Pirates of the Caribbean), with a potential fourth on its way (Transformers), and Summer 2007 will probably be the biggest summer on record. But right now, ticket prices are at an all-time high, with an average ticket costing about $6.70 (if you live in the city, that may seem a little low, but the price averages out once you factor in costs from rural America and the Midwest and South).

The financially most successful film of all time, 1997’s Titanic, which grossed $600 million domestically, had an average ticket price of about $4.75. If that film were released 10 years later (and, of course, sold the same amount of tickets), that gross would be an astonishing $844 million. 2007’s box-office champ to date, Spider-Man 3, pales in comparison with about $335 million. So does 2006’s box-office champ, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest with $423 million. That’s half!

So before the studios and filmmakers and stars start celebrating that they’re the biggest things since sliced bread, here’s a quick look at some other films whose box-office reception today would stagger the imagination.

Gone with the Wind has sold more tickets than any other film over the years, but that comes from the luxury of four major and four minor reissues. Its first release in 1939, which actually spanned over three years, would have brought in $730 million in today’s dollars. That’s slightly less than Titanic but a still incredible total. Star Wars has sold the second most tickets of all time, with its original run in 1977 and two reissues. Just looking at the first release, today’s gross would be $710 million, and that factors in a higher percentage of lower children’s prices.

There are two films that were more successful than Titanic on their first release: The Sound of Music and E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial. The Academy Award-winning musical was a cultural phenomenon when released in 1965. It played in some theaters for years, and had fans that were going back 10 or 20 or 30 times (there were no DVDs back then). In fact, there was one woman who had paid to see it over 100 times. Today, that 1965 gross would equate to nearly $1 billion. That’s not a typo! Julie Andrews had just won the Oscar for 1964’s Mary Poppins and was riding high, the stage show of Music was a huge success, and with the counterculture just beginning to take shape, mid-America needed something to rally around. Nuns, music and Nazis were just the ticket.

Looking back at that time period, Julie Andrews had an unprecedented record that has yet to be topped. With two films, Mary Poppins and The Sound of Music, released in back-to-back years, she brought in a combined $1.580 billion in today’s dollars. Only Harrison Ford nears that total, his films The Empire Strikes Back and Raiders of the Lost Ark, released back-to-back in 1980 and 1981, grossing in today’s dollars about $1.077 billion.

Steven Spielberg, however, comes even closer to Andrews’ mark. The two-time Oscar-winning director had two smash hits back-to-back, Raiders in 1981 and E.T. in 1982. The former’s adjusted gross would be $532 million, and the latter, another cultural phenomenon, would bring in $850 million in today’s dollars, for a combined total of $1.382 billion. That’s simply amazing by any standards. Charlton Heston had two films in the 1950s that were mammoth hits, The Ten Commandments and Ben-Hur, which collectively in today’s dollars would translate to something like $1.345 billion, an astronomical sum, but with 1956 and 1959 release dates respectively, they weren’t back to back. Still, that’s an accomplishment that only a handful of performers have achieved.

So, Johnny Depp, we love you as Captain Jack Sparrow, you’ve created one of the most endearing film characters of all time, and your last two Pirates films, released back-to-back, will bring in collectively about $733 million. That’s a helluva lot of money, but less than half of what Julie did. Tom Cruise, you may be a flake but you’re a big star as well, and you’ve had a slew of box-office hits, but in 1992, 1993 and 1994, your three films A Few Good Men, The Firm and Interview with a Vampire brought in a combined $645 million in today’s dollars. Impressive, yes, but not enough to cause you to start jumping on couches.

With all the focus on box office and money, let’s keep matters in perspective. Even with today’s inflationary ticket prices, for a star to bring in over $100 million for a film is an accomplishment… just ask Steve Carell. But also let’s keep the back-slapping and adulations to a minimum, for no matter how well one star does, there’s always another one who’s done better. And when we focus too much on the celebrity du jour, and forget those how have made the significant contributions, what we wind up with are pages of newsprint and hours of airtime on Paris Hilton and Lindsay Lohan. And we wouldn’t want that, would we?

© TLA Entertainment Group

Thursday, July 26, 2007

A delicious double standard

In a wonderful bit of irony, two items ran simultaneously in today's edition of Lew Irwin's Studio Briefing, an invaluable resource for movie news. It seems that Disney is making a stand against smoking in their movies. While the Looney Tunes have always had a bit of a tobacco fetish, the only smoking in Disney films that we can remember are courtesy the villainous Cruella DeVil and possibly the forest in Bambi, which was smoking for a different reason but still claimed a life. So while it's a symbolic gesture, it's an important one, as we all know how influential movies can be (including influencing young smokers), and most of us have been touched at one time or another by the ill effects of cigarettes.

Two items down, however, comes this gem: A winery has obtained a license to sell Ratatouille brand wine. That's right, the Pixar/Disney G-rated film is now being marketed in alcohol form... the other most lethal drug in America.

I'm guessing that this is merely a reflection of our times; even I am a regular drinker and adamant non-smoker. In the nascent days of the movies, pretty much everyone smoked: on-screen, off-screen, and even in the audience during the movie itself. It probably won't be long, though, before this kind of wine-licensing deal (and even on-screen drinking as depicted in Ratatouille) becomes unthinkable. In the meantime, it's 5pm here in Philadelphia... time to meet my friends for happy hour.

101 Dalmatians image © Disney / The Internet Movie Posters Awards

More on the deal from Bloomberg.com

© TLA Entertainment Group

Monday, July 9, 2007

Transformers: Exactly what meets the eye

Even though many fanboys lined up during the weekdays, Transformers still scored an impressive $70 million-plus over the 3-day weekend. Dave B. had even higher expectations, but due to decent reviews and its newfound freshness as a franchise, it could continue to draw strong crowds in the weeks ahead. Many of the films grossed somewhere between the two Daves' estimates, befitting a weekend that was kind of a holiday, kind of not. But there was one film that caught us off-guard, and probably shouldn't have: 1408's opening weekend was very similar to that of Disturbia, and its second weekend saw a similarly small drop; what do these films have that makes them track so differently from other horror flicks? (That's a real question, not a rhetorical one. If you know the answer, you could make big money in Hollywood.) Finally, the two Daves give themselves a collective pat on the back for gauging the lack of interest in Robin Williams and his depressing post-Oscar® career.

Actual Grosses for the Weekend of July 6 thru July 8:
Rank Film Total
1 Transformers $70.5 million
2 Ratatouille $29.0 million
3 Live Free or Die Hard $17.7 million
4 License to Wed $10.4 million
5 Evan Almighty $8.7 million
6 1408 $7.1 million
7 Knocked Up $5.2 million
8 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer $4.2 million
9 Sicko $3.6 million
10 Ocean's Thirteen $3.5 million

© TLA Entertainment Group

Transformers image ©DreamWorks SKG / Paramount

Box office figures © Box Office Mojo

Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Rats Scurry to #1; Bruce Lives Hard

The Big Cheese Rat-a-Tat-Tat: As expected, the animated Pixar feature Ratatouille was #1 at the box office last weekend, bringing in $47.0 million. Less than Disney/Pixar's Cars ($60.1) but more than Meet the Robinsons ($25.1), the well-reviewed kidpic looks like it should be in the mid-range of animated hits – with a potential gross that could top $150 million. The Two Daves were both within 10% accuracy on their estimates. Industry estimates were as high as $60 million for the Parisian-set comedy, which should benefit over the next few weeks from good word of mouth.

With a Vengeance: Bruce Willis showed there’s plenty of life after 50 as the fourth film in the Die Hard series, Live Free or Die Hard, brought in nearly $10,000 per screen over the weekend for an action-packed $33.4 million. Add the $15 million from the pre-Friday opening, and the film has already grossed $48.4 million. The second week may suffer slightly from Transformers opening, but Bruce should see this installment easily pass the $100 million mark. Dave B. was closest with his guess of $32.0 million.

Doctor, Doctor: The Two Daves both enthusiastically overestimated the opening for Michael Moore’s acclaimed documentary on the U.S. health care system, Sicko. Playing in only 441 theaters, the film brought in over $10,000 per screen, down from Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 numbers, but still excellent for a documentary. The theater count should expand and the final result should show that audiences care as much for the environment (An Inconvenient Truth finished with $24.1 million) as they do about health care.

Nighty Night: That great cast of actresses including Meryl Streep, Glenn Close and Vanessa Redgrave in Evening could only produce $3.5 million on nearly 1,000 screens, proving once again that serious drama can be a serious problem when released in the summer.

Holdovers: Pirates of the Caribbean and Knocked Up had the best weekly drops, both only in the low 30% range. At this rate, Knocked Up will surely pass $150 million. That’s about half of Pirates, which this week will become the third film of the year to pass $300 million.

Actual Grosses for Weekend June 29 thru July 1:
Rank Film Total
1 Ratatouille $47.0 million
2 Live Free or Die Hard $33.4 million
3 Evan Almighty $15.1 million
4 1408 $10.7 million
5 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer $9.1 million
6 Knocked Up $7.3 million
7 Ocean's Thirteen $6.1 million
8 Pirates of the Caribbean 3 $5.0 million
9 Sicko $4.5 million
10 Evening $3.5 million

© TLA Entertainment Group

Ratatouille image © Buena Vista Pictures

Box office figures © Box Office Mojo

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Dissecting Success

1408 brings in $20 million and is a big hit; Evan Almighty pulls in $31 million and is a big disappointment. Welcome to the bizarro world of Hollywood, where success and failure is all in how you spin it. Then again, is that really much different from the rest of the business world?

Let's say you launch an ad campaign for your business. When the campaign is over, you see that sales are actually down 5%. The kneejerk reaction is that the campaign failed. But look deeper. Was there a problem with your product? Increased competition? A seasonal swoon? A failing economy? Maybe without the campaign, business would have been down 20% instead, and the ads were actually keeping you afloat.

In scientific circles, results are explained through repeated trials and comparisons with control groups. But once business products (from sodas to cars to movies) are released into the world, pretty much everything is an isolated experiment, and reasons for success or failure can be inferred but never proven.

We work in the world of DVD and digital downloads, and use comp (comparison) titles to try to gauge future success. So is Evan Almighty a failure because it grossed half what Bruce Almighty did? Or is it a success because it was Steve Carell's biggest opening weekend? And should Carell be punished because the special effects made the budget balloon?

The quality of a film matters too, though not necessarily from a critical perspective. Eddie Murphy is no longer a reliable box office draw, yet Norbit was a hit. Why? Probably because it delivered the quality that moviegoers want: Eddie doing multiple characters, fat suits, and lowbrow comedy. Jim Carrey is likewise not a reliable draw, but Bruce captured the imagination of moviegoers. A dude given the powers of God? Cool! A dude forced to build an ark and collect animals? Hey, that sounds like work. Imagine how much worse Evan would have opened if it wasn't a sequel.

Of course, it's impossible to pinpoint exactly why Evan failed to live up to expectations. But that's part of the fun, and helps to explain why the box office results have moved from the back pages of trade magazines to the front page of USA Today.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Monday, June 25, 2007

Evan Not-So-Mighty; 1408 Pretty Suite

There were two big surprises in this past weekend’s box-office derby, proving once again that no matter what the “experts” think, the filmgoers always have the final say. Evan Almighty, the Steve Carell-starring sequel to the Jim Carrey hit Bruce Almighty, took first place honors with $31.2 million at the box office, but was considerably lower than most forecasters had predicted. Mostly negative reviews and poor word-of-mouth didn’t help. The Two Daves had estimates in the $45 - $48 million range, on par with other predictions, so this obviously took everyone by surprise – none more than distributor Universal, who are probably right now scrapping plans for a third entry. Does that mean we won’t get to see Stan Almighty starring David Cross?

The other upset was the strong showing of the horror tale 1408 starring John Cusack. The Stephen King thriller brought in $20.6 million over the weekend, for an impressive $7,700 per screen average on nearly 2,700 screens. We were also in line with other predictions in underestimating Mr. Cusack and Mr. Jackson. MGM finally has a hit? Now that’s scary. In more limited release, Angelina Jolie’s well-reviewed drama A Mighty Heart opened to $3.9 million in 1,355 screens for a fair $2,900 per screen average.

Of the holdovers, Silver Surfer dropped a whopping 65% to $20.0 million, while the leggy Knocked Up fell only 22% in its fourth week. The latter has now surpassed the $100 million mark, and looks to end with about $150 million!

Actual Grosses for the Weekend of June 22 thru June 24:
Rank Film Total
1 Evan Almighty $31.2 million
2 1408 $20.6 million
3 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer $20.0 million
4 Ocean's Thirteen $11.4 million
5 Knocked Up $11.0 million
6 Pirates of the Caribbean $7.2 million
7 Surf's Up $6.6 million
8 Shrek the Third $5.7 million
9 Nancy Drew $4.4 million
10 A Mighty Heart $3.9 million

© TLA Entertainment Group

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Box Office Predictions 6/22/07 - 6/24/07

David Gorgos: Is the Carell mighter than the Carrey? We’ll find out this weekend when Evan Almighty, the heavily hyped and reportedly very expensive sequel to Bruce Almighty, floods into over 3500 theaters. The first film opened over Memorial Day weekend and was a surprisingly huge smash, grossing $68 million over its first three days. Steve Carell, despite his newfound stardom, is not quite at Jim Carrey’s level, and the trailer is frankly a bore. I’ll still bet that its PG rating and status as a sequel will result in a draw of around $13,000 per screen and $45.5 million over the entire weekend. 1408, which looks at first glance to be a remake of Vacancy, will probably reflect the poor grosses of previous horror entries despite its PG-13 rating and the Stephen King credentials. It will struggle to break $5000 per screen and $12 million. Intelligent dramas have also had a hard time of late, and the depressing/inspiring story of journalist Daniel Pearl and his courageous wife Mariane (played by Angelina Jolie) should be no different. A Mighty Heart is opening semiwide in 1350 theaters, and will not have the big per-screen average it could have grabbed by hitting arthouses first. Expect a gross of just over $5 million. For holdovers, Fantastic Four will get hit hard by Evan in addition to the usual big drop suffered by sequels and sci-fi flicks. A 60% drop actually seems conservative. Knocked Up has remained strong and continues to face no direct competition. Me? I’m staying home and watching Duck, You Sucker!

David Bleiler: Bye bye Bruce, hello Evan. God has a new favorite, and his name is Steve Carell. Taking over the lead in Evan Almighty, the sequel to the Jim Carrey blockbuster Bruce Almighty, Carell gets his first chance since 40-Year-Old Virgin to flex his box-office muscles in a major Hollywood production. Even with costar Morgan Freeman back as The Almighty, this won’t quite see the kind of knockout grosses the original commanded. As star of a cult TV show and two theatrical hits to date, Carell is no Jim Carrey – but give him time. Look for Evan to gross over the weekend in the high $40 millions, down a bit from the original’s $67.9 million three-day gross – but still very respectable. The other wide-release opener is the John Cusack thriller 1408, penned from a Stephen King story. Horror tales have been slipping lately, and it’s not a franchise, so this should be somewhere between Hostel 2 ($8.2 million) and Hannibal Rising ($13.1 million). Opening in limited release is A Mighty Heart, starring Angelina Jolie as Mariane Pearl, wife of slain journalist Daniel Pearl. Serious fare in summer is risky (the terrific Cinderella Man underperformed; Crash proved to be the least successful Best Film winner as far as ticket sales), but good reviews and media attention on Mrs. Pitt could propel this past the $5 million mark.

Our Predictions
Film Gorgos Bleiler
Evan Almighty $45.5 million $48.5 million
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer $22.6 million $27.2 million
1408 $12.2 million $11.7 million
Ocean's Thirteen $11.4 million $11.4 million
Knocked Up $10.2 million $9.3 million
Pirates of the Caribbean 3 $6.3 million $6.9 million
Surf's Up $5.3 million $5.5 million
A Mighty Heart $5.3 million $5.4 million
Shrek the Third $4.9 million $5.0 million
Nancy Drew $3.4 million $3.9 million
Theater counts obtained at www.boxofficemojo.com

Content © TLA Entertainment Group

Monday, June 18, 2007

Fantastic: Yes. Nancy: Without a clue.

The respected Lew Irwin said in today's Studio Briefing, "Twentieth Century Fox's decision to produce Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer in such a way that it would receive a PG rating apparently paid off in spades for the studio over the weekend. The film defied analysts' predictions of a $30-million opening and grossed nearly twice that amount -- an estimated $57.4 million -- to take the top spot at the box office." Hey buddy, what analysts were you listening to?

Yeah, the two Daves' predictions were a bit low, but were still within 8% of the final gross. However, only one Dave correctly predicted that Nancy Drew would not be a big draw, averaging under $2800 per screen like just about every other tween movie aimed at girls. OK, we heard of one senile great-grandmother who showed up but kept asking where Bonita Granville was. Both of us bombed on Surf's Up, thinking that it would have a similarly small drop as other well-reviewed animated films. But we underestimated the small-fry drawing power of Fantastic Four and its PG rating, siphoning an extra couple million clams away from the penguins. The rest of the top 10 had predictable declines, including the sharp downward spiral of Hostel Part II.

Schadenfreude alert: We overestimated the pull of DOA: Dead or Alive, which pulled in a whopping $516 per theater for just $260,713 total. Wow. Harvey is probably stewing, trying to figure out how he can fire himself. Next week will be a tough one to predict, with Evan Almighty and 1408 vying for eyeballs in the multiplexes, and the Angelina Jolie wildcard A Mighty Heart hitting the arthouse venues.

Actual Grosses for the Weekend of June 15 thru June 17:
Rank Film Total
1 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surver $58.1 million
2 Ocean's Thirteen $19.7 million
3 Knocked Up $14.1 million
4 Pirates of the Caribbean $12.4 million
5 Surf's Up $9.3 million
6 Shrek the Third $9.0 million
7 Nancy Drew $6.8 million
8 Hostel Part II $3.0 million
9 Mr. Brooks $2.9 million
10 Spider-Man 3 $2.5 million
© TLA Entertainment Group

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Box Office Predictions 6/15/07 - 6/17/07

David Bleiler: Can a sequel to a bad movie actually make more money than the original? We’re about to find out this weekend with the opening of Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer. Opening on more than 3,800 screens, the Marvel Comics crew could do just that thanks to a massive media blitz and those cool theater lobby standees with the Silver Surfer in all his 3-D glory. The original grossed $56.1 million in its opening weekend in 2005, and that’s quite a chunk of change. Look for this one to come very close. The other newcomer, Nancy Drew, starring Julia Roberts’ niece Emma (there was a time you would have said Eric’s daughter), opens on over 2,400 screens, and should see modest results in the low $10 million range. This will be the first time since 1939 when little Bonita Granville portrayed her that Nancy has been on the big screen. That could in itself comment on its theatrical viability. But, then, who would have expected Princess Diaries to become a franchise – never underestimate the power of the teenage girl. Of the holdovers, expect Knocked Up to continue its impressive run with a drop somewhere in the 25%-35% range. Next weekend, Shrek the Third will become the second film of 2007 to surpass $300 million domestic gross; the first being, of course, Spider-Man 3.

David Gorgos: I'm not a comic book reader, but I have managed to pick up one thing about The Fantastic Four: People are excited about the Silver Surfer. I think his presence alone will be enough to overcome the bad taste that the first movie left in everyone's mouth, and will average over $15,000 per screen for another smash opening. Movies aimed at precocious girls have been incredibly consistent at the box office. Harriet the Spy: $6.6 million. Madeline: 6.4 million. Even Ella Enchanted only scored $6.2 million (with inflation, numbers are actually shrinking over the years). This should make Nancy Drew very easy to predict. Not listed below but worth noting is yet another impending Weinstein disaster: DOA: Dead or Alive, an exploitation movie inexplicably conceived as PG-13, will open to less than $1 million in 500 theatres. Once seen as independent gurus, their new company has been so underwhelming that comparisons to Dino De Laurentiis or Lord Lew "Low" Grade would be insulting. Envisioning a second Miramax, they have instead resurrected Cannon.

Our Predictions
Film Gorgos Bleiler
Fantastic Four 2 $53.2 million $53.5 million
Ocean's Thirteen $18.1 million $19.7 million
Knocked Up $14.1 million $12.1 million
Pirates of the Caribbean 3 $12.7 million $11.5 million
Surf's Up $11.4 million $11.2 million
Nancy Drew $6.2 million $10.8 million
Shrek the Third $7.7 million $7.7 million
Hostel Part II $3.1 million $3.7 million
Mr. Brooks $2.7 million $2.6 million
Spider-Man 3 $2.2 million $2.4 million
Theater counts obtained at www.boxofficemojo.com

Content © TLA Entertainment Group

Monday, June 11, 2007

Ocean Takes #1 Spot: More Squall Than Tsunami

As expected, Ocean’s Thirteen conned its way to the top spot at the box office last weekend, grossing just over $36 million in 3,565 theaters. That is slightly below the first two films’ opening of $38.1 for Eleven in 2001 and $39.1 for Twelve in 2004. Could this signal an end to the series? Let’s just see if it has legs. David Gorgos was in the 95% accuracy range with his guess. Pirates grabbed the second spot, just knocking out Knocked Up with $21.2 million (a 52% drop), compared to the latter’s $19.6 million (a good 36% drop, which suggests this should play through the summer). Though the Two Daves were very close on these picks, Bleiler came closest on both predictions. The animated family film Surf’s Up was nearly stranded on the beach with a below-expectations but respectable gross of $17.6 million. The horror tale Hostel Part II was DOA. Next week’s big release is yet another sequel, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer.

Actual Grosses for the Weekend of June 8 thru June 10:
Rank Film Total
1 Ocean's Thirteen $36.1 million
2 Pirates of the Caribbean $21.1 million
3 Knocked Up $19.6 million
4 Surf's Up $17.6 million
5 Shrek the Third $15.3 million
6 Hostel Part II $8.2 million
7 Mr. Brooks $4.9 million
8 Spider-Man 3 $4.3 million
9 Waitress $1.6 million
10 Disturbia / Gracie / Once (tie) $0.5 million
© TLA Entertainment Group