(Ed. note: Dave B. is out, so we're down to just one Dave for this week.)
David Gorgos: My personal "most anticipated movie of the summer" finally opens, just as summer is winding down. Superbad hits theaters with the oddest of expectations: a "sleeper" that everyone thinks will open big. Buzz on this teen comedy is huge, which is to be expected coming from the Knocked Up / 40-Year-Old Virgin hit machine. But the specter of other internet flops like Snakes on a Plane hangs over it. Well, people tend to turn out for comedies, so I'll project this one as just a bit below Knocked Up's numbers at $29 million.
The other new openings have seemingly easy comparisons. The Invasion, another version of the Body Snatchers story, is opening a similar week as another Nicole Kidman spooker, The Others. Buzz is not good, though, so while The Others reaped $14 million its first weekend, expect this Invasion to be smaller. And while its producers surely want comparisons to Gladiator and 300, The Last Legion is reminding me of another stinker: Pathfinder. The official website has nothing more than a trailer, which should also tell you something about the Weinstein Company's expectations (or their current cash flow). Anything over $5 million would be a nice bonus.
For holdovers, Rush Hour 3 should see a huge drop of over 60%, befitting a tired franchise with lackluster audience response. Stardust may see a better hold, as its audience was less likely to rush out the first weekend.
| Film | Gorgos | |
| Superbad | $29.0 million | |
| Rush Hour 3 | $18.7 million | |
| The Bourne Ultimatum | $18.4 million | |
| The Invasion | $10.5 million | |
| The Simpsons Movie | $5.5 million | |
| Stardust | $5.4 million | |
| The Last Legion | $5.0 million | |
| Hairspray | $4.2 million | |
| Underdog | $3.7 million | |
| Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix | $2.8 million |
Content © TLA Entertainment Group
Superbad picture © Sony
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