David Bleiler: Can a sequel to a bad movie actually make more money than the original? We’re about to find out this weekend with the opening of Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer. Opening on more than 3,800 screens, the Marvel Comics crew could do just that thanks to a massive media blitz and those cool theater lobby standees with the Silver Surfer in all his 3-D glory. The original grossed $56.1 million in its opening weekend in 2005, and that’s quite a chunk of change. Look for this one to come very close. The other newcomer, Nancy Drew, starring Julia Roberts’ niece Emma (there was a time you would have said Eric’s daughter), opens on over 2,400 screens, and should see modest results in the low $10 million range. This will be the first time since 1939 when little Bonita Granville portrayed her that Nancy has been on the big screen. That could in itself comment on its theatrical viability. But, then, who would have expected Princess Diaries to become a franchise – never underestimate the power of the teenage girl. Of the holdovers, expect Knocked Up to continue its impressive run with a drop somewhere in the 25%-35% range. Next weekend, Shrek the Third will become the second film of 2007 to surpass $300 million domestic gross; the first being, of course, Spider-Man 3.
David Gorgos: I'm not a comic book reader, but I have managed to pick up one thing about The Fantastic Four: People are excited about the Silver Surfer. I think his presence alone will be enough to overcome the bad taste that the first movie left in everyone's mouth, and will average over $15,000 per screen for another smash opening. Movies aimed at precocious girls have been incredibly consistent at the box office. Harriet the Spy: $6.6 million. Madeline: 6.4 million. Even Ella Enchanted only scored $6.2 million (with inflation, numbers are actually shrinking over the years). This should make Nancy Drew very easy to predict. Not listed below but worth noting is yet another impending Weinstein disaster: DOA: Dead or Alive, an exploitation movie inexplicably conceived as PG-13, will open to less than $1 million in 500 theatres. Once seen as independent gurus, their new company has been so underwhelming that comparisons to Dino De Laurentiis or Lord Lew "Low" Grade would be insulting. Envisioning a second Miramax, they have instead resurrected Cannon.
| Film | Gorgos | Bleiler |
| Fantastic Four 2 | $53.2 million | $53.5 million |
| Ocean's Thirteen | $18.1 million | $19.7 million |
| Knocked Up | $14.1 million | $12.1 million |
| Pirates of the Caribbean 3 | $12.7 million | $11.5 million |
| Surf's Up | $11.4 million | $11.2 million |
| Nancy Drew | $6.2 million | $10.8 million |
| Shrek the Third | $7.7 million | $7.7 million |
| Hostel Part II | $3.1 million | $3.7 million |
| Mr. Brooks | $2.7 million | $2.6 million |
| Spider-Man 3 | $2.2 million | $2.4 million |
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