1408 brings in $20 million and is a big hit; Evan Almighty pulls in $31 million and is a big disappointment. Welcome to the bizarro world of Hollywood, where success and failure is all in how you spin it. Then again, is that really much different from the rest of the business world?
Let's say you launch an ad campaign for your business. When the campaign is over, you see that sales are actually down 5%. The kneejerk reaction is that the campaign failed. But look deeper. Was there a problem with your product? Increased competition? A seasonal swoon? A failing economy? Maybe without the campaign, business would have been down 20% instead, and the ads were actually keeping you afloat.
In scientific circles, results are explained through repeated trials and comparisons with control groups. But once business products (from sodas to cars to movies) are released into the world, pretty much everything is an isolated experiment, and reasons for success or failure can be inferred but never proven.
We work in the world of DVD and digital downloads, and use comp (comparison) titles to try to gauge future success. So is Evan Almighty a failure because it grossed half what Bruce Almighty did? Or is it a success because it was Steve Carell's biggest opening weekend? And should Carell be punished because the special effects made the budget balloon?
The quality of a film matters too, though not necessarily from a critical perspective. Eddie Murphy is no longer a reliable box office draw, yet Norbit was a hit. Why? Probably because it delivered the quality that moviegoers want: Eddie doing multiple characters, fat suits, and lowbrow comedy. Jim Carrey is likewise not a reliable draw, but Bruce captured the imagination of moviegoers. A dude given the powers of God? Cool! A dude forced to build an ark and collect animals? Hey, that sounds like work. Imagine how much worse Evan would have opened if it wasn't a sequel.
Of course, it's impossible to pinpoint exactly why Evan failed to live up to expectations. But that's part of the fun, and helps to explain why the box office results have moved from the back pages of trade magazines to the front page of USA Today.
© TLA Entertainment Group
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