David Gorgos: Is the Carell mighter than the Carrey? We’ll find out this weekend when Evan Almighty, the heavily hyped and reportedly very expensive sequel to Bruce Almighty, floods into over 3500 theaters. The first film opened over Memorial Day weekend and was a surprisingly huge smash, grossing $68 million over its first three days. Steve Carell, despite his newfound stardom, is not quite at Jim Carrey’s level, and the trailer is frankly a bore. I’ll still bet that its PG rating and status as a sequel will result in a draw of around $13,000 per screen and $45.5 million over the entire weekend. 1408, which looks at first glance to be a remake of Vacancy, will probably reflect the poor grosses of previous horror entries despite its PG-13 rating and the Stephen King credentials. It will struggle to break $5000 per screen and $12 million. Intelligent dramas have also had a hard time of late, and the depressing/inspiring story of journalist Daniel Pearl and his courageous wife Mariane (played by Angelina Jolie) should be no different. A Mighty Heart is opening semiwide in 1350 theaters, and will not have the big per-screen average it could have grabbed by hitting arthouses first. Expect a gross of just over $5 million. For holdovers, Fantastic Four will get hit hard by Evan in addition to the usual big drop suffered by sequels and sci-fi flicks. A 60% drop actually seems conservative. Knocked Up has remained strong and continues to face no direct competition. Me? I’m staying home and watching Duck, You Sucker!
David Bleiler: Bye bye Bruce, hello Evan. God has a new favorite, and his name is Steve Carell. Taking over the lead in Evan Almighty, the sequel to the Jim Carrey blockbuster Bruce Almighty, Carell gets his first chance since 40-Year-Old Virgin to flex his box-office muscles in a major Hollywood production. Even with costar Morgan Freeman back as The Almighty, this won’t quite see the kind of knockout grosses the original commanded. As star of a cult TV show and two theatrical hits to date, Carell is no Jim Carrey – but give him time. Look for Evan to gross over the weekend in the high $40 millions, down a bit from the original’s $67.9 million three-day gross – but still very respectable. The other wide-release opener is the John Cusack thriller 1408, penned from a Stephen King story. Horror tales have been slipping lately, and it’s not a franchise, so this should be somewhere between Hostel 2 ($8.2 million) and Hannibal Rising ($13.1 million). Opening in limited release is A Mighty Heart, starring Angelina Jolie as Mariane Pearl, wife of slain journalist Daniel Pearl. Serious fare in summer is risky (the terrific Cinderella Man underperformed; Crash proved to be the least successful Best Film winner as far as ticket sales), but good reviews and media attention on Mrs. Pitt could propel this past the $5 million mark.
| Film | Gorgos | Bleiler |
| Evan Almighty | $45.5 million | $48.5 million |
| Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer | $22.6 million | $27.2 million |
| 1408 | $12.2 million | $11.7 million |
| Ocean's Thirteen | $11.4 million | $11.4 million |
| Knocked Up | $10.2 million | $9.3 million |
| Pirates of the Caribbean 3 | $6.3 million | $6.9 million |
| Surf's Up | $5.3 million | $5.5 million |
| A Mighty Heart | $5.3 million | $5.4 million |
| Shrek the Third | $4.9 million | $5.0 million |
| Nancy Drew | $3.4 million | $3.9 million |
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