David Bleiler: There’s no doubt that Transformers will be big – the question is just how big? Bringing in $27.5 million on its opening day on Tuesday, the popcorn movie of the summer brought in nearly $7,000 per screen. Let’s cheat, and use that as our guide, suggesting that the three-day weekend per screen average will hit $20,000. That equates to somewhere in the low $80 millions on 4,011 screens. And, since weekends are always higher, this could hit $23,000 per screen… so I’ll be calling it at $92.2 million opening weekend gross. If it’s even in this neighborhood, then this would indicate we’ll have a fourth film this summer that will gross over $300 million!
The only other new release – read: only other film company stupid enough to go up against giant robots from outer space – is Warner’s License to Wed. The studio must think that this is great counter-programming, that Robin Williams as a hipster priest will appeal to those not lured by Megatron and his friends. But those trailers make Williams’ Patch Adams look like The Departed. Still, there are enough fans to suggest this could do at least RV business, so let’s call it $4,500 per screen on 2,400 screens for a $10.8 million opening. Don’t expect the legs that RV had unless this is truly funny and not the sap-fest the ads suggest.
Of the holdovers, look for Ratatouille, Sicko, Live Free or Die Hard and the usual suspect Knocked Up to have the least percentage drops from last weekend.
David Gorgos: I confess that while all my friends were absorbed in the Autobots and the Decepticons, I was watching Looney Tunes and "The Price Is Right" (I would totally buy a Best of TPIR DVD). So I really don't understand the excitement surrounding Michael Bay's noisy adaptation. However, the numbers don't lie. Comparing its Tuesday gross to previous Wednesday grosses yields: Superman Returns ($21 Wednesday, $52.5 weekend); War of the Worlds ($21.3 Wednesday, $64.5 weekend); Men in Black II ($18.6 Wednesday, $52.1 weekend). Transformer opened about 35-40% higher than these comp titles on Tuesday, so a similar weekend would result in a 3-day gross of over $70 million. Surprisingly, this will be Michael Bay's biggest opening weekend ever, proof not only that you can't go broke underestimating the taste of the general public, but that Bay hadn't plumbed so far already.
Score one for American taste, however, as Robin Williams unleashes another bomb. His career is mimicing Eddie Murphy's in that only his kiddie-friendly and cartoon fare is hitting big. This forced romantic comedy is not aimed at kids, and adults are sick of his schtick. On a side note, I think when Howie Mandel and Carrot Top leave the MGM Grand, Robin would be a perfect fit for a long-term run in Vegas.
Die Hard will probably dip big like other sequels, while Ratatouille will see a drop somewhere between Cars and Finding Nemo, just under 40%. Dave seems to believe that all films will have a holiday bump, while I don't think either weekend (before and after July 4) is truly a holiday weekend, which accounts for much of the difference in our predictions. And Sicko, while still a success, isn't nearly approaching the heights of Fahrenheit 9/11. Democratic politicians should take note: Americans aren't nearly as mobilized around health care as they are with our misguided wars on terror and Iraq.
| Film | Gorgos | Bleiler |
| Transformers | $72.5 million | $92.2 million |
| Ratatouille | $29.6 million | $35.3 million |
| Live Free or Die Hard | $15.0 million | $21.7 million |
| License to Wed | $9.4 million | $10.8 million |
| Evan Almighty | $8.6 million | $9.0 million |
| 1408 | $5.1 million | $6.0 million |
| Knocked Up | $4.5 million | $5.1 million |
| Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer | $4.0 million | $4.6 million |
| Sicko | $3.1 million | $4.2 million |
| Ocean's Thirteen | $3.5 million | $3.7 million |
Content © TLA Entertainment Group
Transformers picture © DreamWorks SKG
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