David Gorgos: Judging by our blog hits alone, anticipation is huge for the fifth installment of the Harry Potter series. Each film has reliably opened with an average of around $25,000 per screen, and this one should be no different. A huge theater count of 4285 (and most of those showing the film on multiple screens) should push Order of the Phoenix to a new record.
Transformers has good news and bad news: It’s not a sequel, so its drop shouldn’t be too severe, but Harry is going after the exact same audience. A dip of about 50% sounds right.
The only other new opening is Captivity, the latest torture-porn flick, which should draw a miniscule crowd. For those wondering why the director of The Mission and The Killing Fields would stoop to generic horror, remember that Roland Joffé’s recent resume includes such dreck as Goodbye Lover and The Scarlet Letter (complete with happy ending).
David Bleiler: With one whimsical zap of his wand, Harry Potter will turn those morphing autos into scrap metal as this weekend the anticipated fifth entry in the Potter series, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, opens on nearly 4,300 screens. Perfectly timed to coincide with the release of the seventh and final book, “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows” on July 21, the film should see near-record performance for the Potter films. The last two, Goblet and Azkaban, opened with $26,600 and $24,300 per screen averages, respectively. They both opened on less than 4,000 screens, so Phoenix’s per screen average probably won’t top those numbers, but it should equal it. Let’s call it $25,000 per screen, for a magical $107.1 million opening weekend. That will top Goblet’s $102.7 million opening.
Harry will be taking a bite out of Transformers, but not necessarily a huge one. Word of mouth seems to be good for the actioner, so it may not approach the 50% second-week drop that many of this year’s big films are experiencing. Anticipating a 45% drop, the film should bring in $38.8 million. That’s still a total after two weekends of over $225 million! These robot cars are driving all the way to the bank.
The only other opener is the horror title Captivity, what looks to be a Saw rip-off. With no stars and little buzz, this shouldn’t see more than $3,500 per screen for an opening of $5.3 million on 1,500 screens.
Two mediocre comedies in release, Evan Almighty and License to Wed, should see the biggest drop, nearing or topping 50%; all the other films in the top ten should be in the 30%-45% range, with Ratatouille looking to have the best percentage drop. Now we wait for Hairspray and Chuck and Larry next weekend.
| Film | Gorgos | Bleiler |
| Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix | $106.2 million | $107.1 million |
| Transformers | $36.0 million | $38.8 million |
| Ratatouille | $18.8 million | $18.1 million |
| Live Free or Die Hard | $9.7 million | $10.8 million |
| License to Wed | $5.9 million | $5.8 million |
| Captivity | $3.8 million | $5.3 million |
| Evan Almighty | $4.7 million | $4.7 million |
| 1408 | $4.2 million | $4.4 million |
| Knocked Up | $3.5 million | $3.6 million |
| Sicko | $2.7 million | $2.7 million |
Content © TLA Entertainment Group
Harry Potter picture © Warner Bros. Pictures
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