David Gorgos: The question is, will people want to pay for what they already get for free? They sure did with The X-Files, but The Simpsons Movie is by far the biggest experiment of its kind. It is also the rare movie to arrive in theaters while the TV show is still being produced. And will its PG-13 rating mean that it will attract a broader audience than traditional animated fare, or will it turn off parents with the youngest children? All I know for sure is that I haven't watched the TV show in about 4 years, and yet i'm eagerly anticipating this Cinemascope offering.
Other new release fare is tightly targeted: No Reservations will do typical romance business, while I Know Who Killed Me will fail to draw the thriller crowd and Who's Your Caddy? won't even appeal to the urban market.
Kudos this week go out to Bruce Willis who, to everyone's surprise, now has the highest-grossing Die Hard entry; try to find another franchise whose 4th film was its biggest. (You win if you said Star Wars.)
David Bleiler: Doh! The Simpsons Movie will open big, but just how big? Some forecasters are calling for $50 million or more for opening weekend. After 18 years on the air, Homer, Marge, Bart and Lisa finally hit the big screen… and a built-in audience is a guarantee. How far reaching will it be? I’m gonna be a little more conservative and suggest that – even in light of that great trailer (“Spider-pig, Spider-pig”) – this will probably see about an $11,000 average on 3,800 screens for a $41.8 million opener. That’s a lot of slices of processed American cheese. Ummmm… cheese.
Lost in the Simpsons buzz is the romantic comedy No Reservations, which (if those trailers are any indication) could set the genre back 20 years. Catherine Zeta-Jones and Aaron Eckhart… is it me or is that romantic pairing the biggest recipe for disaster since Orlando Bloom and Kirsten Dunst in Elizabethtown? On 2,300 screens, this should see about $5,100 a screen for $11.7 million opening frame. Even less appetizing is the latest from celebrity train-wreck-of-the-month Lindsay Lohan in the thriller I Know Who Killed Me. We’re all tired of dear little Lindsay’s shenanigans, and the constant press coverage, and that should translate to her movie as well. Let’s call this a rehab-busting $5.4 million. If this does flop, we’ll know what killed her career.
Of the holdovers, here’s hoping the delightful Hairspray falls less than 50%... word of mouth is good, the reviews are great, the film is infectious, so let’s call this a respectable 40% decline and a $16.5 million second weekend. Could John Travolta receive an Oscar nom as Best Supporting Actor for his wonderful turn as Edna? Stay tuned.
| Film | Gorgos | Bleiler |
| The Simpsons Movie | $45.1 million | $41.8 million |
| I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry | $18.1 million | $18.8 million |
| Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix | $16.9 million | $17.3 million |
| Hairspray | $15.1 million | $16.5 million |
| No Reservations | $9.7 million | $11.7 million |
| Transformers | $9.8 million | $10.9 million |
| Ratatouille | $5.5 million | $6.8 million |
| I Know Who Killed Me | $3.3 million | $5.4 million |
| Live Free or Die Hard | $3.9 million | $4.5 million |
| Who's Your Caddy? | $2.2 million | $3.0 million |
Content © TLA Entertainment Group
The Simpsons Movie picture © Fox
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