David Gorgos: No matter how good a film is, the general public is going to prejudge it based on what came before. Mission: Impossible III, a terrific and well-reviewed action pic, was a disappointment at the box office because 1) Mission: Impossible II sucked, big time and 2) Tom Cruise went batshit crazy. This is a long-winded way of saying that while the cast of Ocean's Thirteen is still beloved, and early reviews are positive, Ocean's Twelve left a bad taste in the public's mouth. Expect a slight drop-off from Twelve's numbers, especially given the stiff competition. Kids love penguins, but animation releases have been fairly unpredictable this past year. Also with good advanced buzz, Surf's Up could either tank or be a smash. Since I'm a wimp, I'm hedging my bet somewhere in the middle with $7000 per screen. The first Hostel was a hit given its rough January release date; with no horror competition, the sequel should open a bit better despite all the blockbusters competing for space. And even against these strong openers, I expect Knocked Up to have a relatively small drop-off in its second week, a real test in its quest to surpass the huge total of The 40-Year-Old Virgin.
David Bleiler: George Clooney asked in the first Ocean’s Eleven, “You in or you out?” Expect a lot of “in” this weekend as the second sequel, Ocean's Thirteen, is back in Vegas and back in form. At over 3,400 theaters, this will see the #1 spot probably in the low $40 million range – great word-of-mouth could push it higher. The animated comedy Surf’s Up, with more cute, smart-alecky penguins, should do better than Barnyard but not as strong as either Happy Feet or Ice Age. Look for this in the low $20 millions. Of the holdovers, look for Knocked Up to have the best legs. On Monday, it actually beat Pirates for the top spot, suggesting its weekend drop will be small (25%-35%). Don’t look for horror flick du jour, Hostel 2, to surpass the original’s $19.5 million income unless bored teens tire of con men, pirates and one-night stands.
| Film | Gorgos | Bleiler |
| Ocean's Thirteen | $34.5 million | $42.5 million |
| Knocked Up | $22.1 million | $21.5 million |
| Surf's Up | $21.3 million | $22.3 million |
| Pirates of the Caribbean 3 | $19.0 million | $20.0 million |
| Hostel Part II | $19.8 million | $15.0 million |
| Shrek the Third | $14.0 million | $15.4 million |
| Mr. Brooks | $5.2 million | $5.9 million |
| Spider-Man 3 | $3.8 million | $3.8 million |
| Waitress | $1.4 million | $1.5 million |
| Gracie | $0.7 million | $0.9 million |
Content © TLA Entertainment Group
No comments:
Post a Comment