David Bleiler: It’s a showdown between the Cowboy and the Rat for the weekend’s top spot at the box office – my money is on the Rat, as in Ratatouille. Disney’s latest animated pic is getting great pre-release buzz, and kids will be anxious for something actually original this summer in contrast to retreads of ogres, pirates and superheroes. Opening on over 3,500 screens, this has the potential to be in the Cars and Ice Age range, which would place its per screen average between $14,000 (Ice Age) and $15,000 (Cars). Let’s call it $14,500 per screen for $50.8 million. The only thing it has going against it is that name.
Cowboy John McClane, alias Bruce Willis, is back in the fourth installment of the Die Hard series, the last entry being 12 years ago. Another instance of very good pre-release buzz, Live Free or Die Hard should quench the thirst for a balls-to-the-wall actioner, especially in light of the Silver Surfer wiping out. Willis may be getting a little long in the tooth, but fans probably won’t mind. This won’t see the great numbers of the other films, but on almost 3,200 screens, it should speed to a respectable $10,000 per screen, putting it on par with another sequel, Ocean’s Thirteen.
One of the most anticipated releases of the summer has to be Sicko, Michael Moore’s documentary about our country’s health care system. Moore received a six-minute standing ovation at Cannes where the film premiered, and reviews so far have been tremendous. Documentaries are always a tough sell, but on the heels of his smash Fahrenheit 9/11 and the surprising success of Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth, this should see good numbers. On 441 screens, which will create a larger demand, the film should generate about $15,000 per screen, coming in at $6.6 million.
The other new release, Evening is getting fair buzz at best, and even with that great cast (Meryl Streep, Glenn Close, Vanessa Redgrave), returns should only be in the Mighty Heart range. Sorry Meryl, this devil wears nada.
David Gorgos: Pixar films have been very consistent, averaging over $15,000 per screen in their opening weekends. However, I don't have the same faith in Ratatouille, as the voice talent is nowhere near that of Cars, Disney is coming off a disappointing run for Meet the Robinsons, and rats as featured players are unproven at best and box office poison at worst (Flushed Away anyone?). It should fail to break the $50 million barrier that has been expected of Pixar in its opening weekend.
Despite a nonstop publicity blitz, I don't hear masses shouting "Bruuuuuuce" this summer. Live Free or Die Hard should garner a moderate opening but will not rejuvenate the franchise.
We're informed by boxofficemojo.com that Sicko is only opening on 441 screens, half that of Fahrenheit 9/11. As long as it stays with a theater count below 1000, I expect Sicko to hit similar per-screen heights of about $25,000. At the current theater count, that gives it an opening of $11 million; if it gets more screens, then expect the total to rise accordingly.
The final semi-wide release, Evening, has no buzz whatsoever despite its stellar cast, and will probably open out of the top 10.
| Film | Gorgos | Bleiler |
| Ratatouille | $42.6 million | $50.8 million |
| Live Free or Die Hard | $23.7 million | $32.0 million |
| Evan Almighty | $13.1 million | $17.2 million |
| Sicko | $11.0 million | $6.6 million |
| 1408 | $10.5 million | $12.4 million |
| Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer | $9.0 million | $9.3 million |
| Knocked Up | $7.9 million | $7.9 million |
| Ocean's Thirteen | $6.8 million | $6.8 million |
| Pirates of the Caribbean 3 | $3.9 million | $4.1 million |
| Evening | $2.3 million | $3.2 million |
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