Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Sicko

Sicko

(2007, 113 min) Michael Moore just gets better and better.

This time he takes on the multi-billion-dollar morass known as the U.S. health care system . . . the term “health care” embodying the height of ironic sarcasm. He starts with individual stories: There’s the solid middle-class couple bankrupted by co-pays and deductibles when both suffered catastrophic illnesses. There’s the woman whose ambulance ride from a car accident was denied payment because it wasn’t pre-approved. Or the young woman whose claim was denied because she was “too young” to have the illness she contracted. Logic has no foothold here; the only motivation is profit, the guiding principle by which Nixon set up HMOs in the 1970s. (Nixon’s the one.)

Bankrupt if you’re lucky, dead if you’re not. A mother loses her daughter, a wife loses her husband, when their claims are determined to be ineligible by the insurance companies that took payments for years.

Moore visits several industrialized countries with universal health care, only to find that the evils of the medical care system that we’ve been taught to fear apparently don’t exist. People get to pick their doctors and hospitals in Canada and Great Britain and France. The patients seem happy with the care they receive and the doctors seem content with their working conditions. Medications cost next to nothing. No one there can quite grasp the idea of being denied heath care because you can’t afford it.

Moore’s command of the medium has matured; he controls the film’s ebb and flow masterfully. His ability to make complex information accessible is joined with an impressive ability to move from the humorous to the utterly serious — and take the audience with him. He is unabashedly polemical, and makes no bones about his beliefs and predispositions. While Canada, Great Britain and France certainly are not pristine paradises, human life does seem to be held to a different standard, with a different sense of community and responsibility to compatriots. In the U.S., profits are made when care is denied; in Great Britain, doctors get bonuses for healthy patients. In the U.S., some hospitals put drugged, disoriented patients into cabs to be dumped at the doorstep of other institutions when their coverage runs out; in France, there are 24-hour-a-day house calls. (Moore offers a compelling theory as to the real reason our government and media encourages us to hate the French.) As one Brit put it, “If you can find money to kill people, you can find money to help people.”

Since 9/11, there have been many fundraisers held to help pay the medical costs of volunteer first responders. Since they weren’t city employees, they weren’t covered. Moore takes a group of them by boat, first to Gitmo looking for some of the medical care given to suspected Al-Qaeda detainees. No help there, so onward to Havana, where medical care is available and affordable. There’s something shameful about watching a group of fellow Americans, Americans who jumped in to assist the fallen in a moment of national nightmare, getting medical treatment they couldn’t afford and a grateful nation wouldn’t supply; and getting it from a country defined as our enemy for half a century.

Washington has more health care lobbyists than congressmen, and “contributions” to the lawmakers is one payout the insurance companies don’t do on the cheap. All of this leads inexorably to Moore’s summation question: “Who are we?” Ponder that one while reeling from the gut punch that is Sicko.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Box Office Predictions 6/29/07 - 7/1/07

David Bleiler: It’s a showdown between the Cowboy and the Rat for the weekend’s top spot at the box office – my money is on the Rat, as in Ratatouille. Disney’s latest animated pic is getting great pre-release buzz, and kids will be anxious for something actually original this summer in contrast to retreads of ogres, pirates and superheroes. Opening on over 3,500 screens, this has the potential to be in the Cars and Ice Age range, which would place its per screen average between $14,000 (Ice Age) and $15,000 (Cars). Let’s call it $14,500 per screen for $50.8 million. The only thing it has going against it is that name.

Cowboy John McClane, alias Bruce Willis, is back in the fourth installment of the Die Hard series, the last entry being 12 years ago. Another instance of very good pre-release buzz, Live Free or Die Hard should quench the thirst for a balls-to-the-wall actioner, especially in light of the Silver Surfer wiping out. Willis may be getting a little long in the tooth, but fans probably won’t mind. This won’t see the great numbers of the other films, but on almost 3,200 screens, it should speed to a respectable $10,000 per screen, putting it on par with another sequel, Ocean’s Thirteen.

One of the most anticipated releases of the summer has to be Sicko, Michael Moore’s documentary about our country’s health care system. Moore received a six-minute standing ovation at Cannes where the film premiered, and reviews so far have been tremendous. Documentaries are always a tough sell, but on the heels of his smash Fahrenheit 9/11 and the surprising success of Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth, this should see good numbers. On 441 screens, which will create a larger demand, the film should generate about $15,000 per screen, coming in at $6.6 million.

The other new release, Evening is getting fair buzz at best, and even with that great cast (Meryl Streep, Glenn Close, Vanessa Redgrave), returns should only be in the Mighty Heart range. Sorry Meryl, this devil wears nada.

David Gorgos: Pixar films have been very consistent, averaging over $15,000 per screen in their opening weekends. However, I don't have the same faith in Ratatouille, as the voice talent is nowhere near that of Cars, Disney is coming off a disappointing run for Meet the Robinsons, and rats as featured players are unproven at best and box office poison at worst (Flushed Away anyone?). It should fail to break the $50 million barrier that has been expected of Pixar in its opening weekend.

Despite a nonstop publicity blitz, I don't hear masses shouting "Bruuuuuuce" this summer. Live Free or Die Hard should garner a moderate opening but will not rejuvenate the franchise.

We're informed by boxofficemojo.com that Sicko is only opening on 441 screens, half that of Fahrenheit 9/11. As long as it stays with a theater count below 1000, I expect Sicko to hit similar per-screen heights of about $25,000. At the current theater count, that gives it an opening of $11 million; if it gets more screens, then expect the total to rise accordingly.

The final semi-wide release, Evening, has no buzz whatsoever despite its stellar cast, and will probably open out of the top 10.

Our Predictions
Film Gorgos Bleiler
Ratatouille $42.6 million $50.8 million
Live Free or Die Hard $23.7 million $32.0 million
Evan Almighty $13.1 million $17.2 million
Sicko $11.0 million $6.6 million
1408 $10.5 million $12.4 million
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer $9.0 million $9.3 million
Knocked Up $7.9 million $7.9 million
Ocean's Thirteen $6.8 million $6.8 million
Pirates of the Caribbean 3 $3.9 million $4.1 million
Evening $2.3 million $3.2 million
Theater counts obtained at www.boxofficemojo.com

Content © TLA Entertainment Group

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Shooter

Shooter

(2007, 125 min) Antoine Fuqua (Training Day) once again helms a high budget Hollywood retro action flick, with Mark Wahlberg in the key role as covert sniper Bob Lee Swagger. Danny Glover and Ned Beatty represent the military and legislative branches of the U.S. government, here painted as morally bankrupt and, in today’s parlance, pawns in a giant conspiracy driven shadow government. This is the underpinning that holds this adrenaline romp together and gives it a somewhat serious tone, although the subject matter is thin and at times murky in conception. The simple premise that later evolves into something more complex, has Swagger tapped by the FBI to consult on the possible attempt of the president’s life, overseeing an operation that supposedly will thwart the action. This turns out to be a trap set to blame the attempt on Swagger himself, setting him on a fugitive flight from the government bad guys and presenting a good series of action sequences set first in Philadelphia, then Kentucky, Montana and beyond. Michael Peña as Nick Memphis lends a supporting hand as an agent done wrong by the agency who comes over to Swagger’s side and learns to fight the good fight.

Filled with spectacular explosions as a backdrop to slow-motion wide-angle shots of Wahlberg striding heroically through the landscape, there is much to admire in the well-edited pacing of this somewhat traditional action adventure. At times, some of the dialog and postures of the main characters verge on the preposterous, but these are countered by passages of logic and clarity, coloring the whole affair as slightly uneven in tone and texture. The script manages to blame the Iraq war, revolutions in Africa, even the Kennedy assassination on this shadowy government conspiracy. Of course, there is ample material that could lend credence to these allegations and the script wisely glosses over details to deliver a damning message that bumps this film up a notch.

Overall, Shooter entertains throughout its two-hour run and doesn’t take itself too seriously.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Dissecting Success

1408 brings in $20 million and is a big hit; Evan Almighty pulls in $31 million and is a big disappointment. Welcome to the bizarro world of Hollywood, where success and failure is all in how you spin it. Then again, is that really much different from the rest of the business world?

Let's say you launch an ad campaign for your business. When the campaign is over, you see that sales are actually down 5%. The kneejerk reaction is that the campaign failed. But look deeper. Was there a problem with your product? Increased competition? A seasonal swoon? A failing economy? Maybe without the campaign, business would have been down 20% instead, and the ads were actually keeping you afloat.

In scientific circles, results are explained through repeated trials and comparisons with control groups. But once business products (from sodas to cars to movies) are released into the world, pretty much everything is an isolated experiment, and reasons for success or failure can be inferred but never proven.

We work in the world of DVD and digital downloads, and use comp (comparison) titles to try to gauge future success. So is Evan Almighty a failure because it grossed half what Bruce Almighty did? Or is it a success because it was Steve Carell's biggest opening weekend? And should Carell be punished because the special effects made the budget balloon?

The quality of a film matters too, though not necessarily from a critical perspective. Eddie Murphy is no longer a reliable box office draw, yet Norbit was a hit. Why? Probably because it delivered the quality that moviegoers want: Eddie doing multiple characters, fat suits, and lowbrow comedy. Jim Carrey is likewise not a reliable draw, but Bruce captured the imagination of moviegoers. A dude given the powers of God? Cool! A dude forced to build an ark and collect animals? Hey, that sounds like work. Imagine how much worse Evan would have opened if it wasn't a sequel.

Of course, it's impossible to pinpoint exactly why Evan failed to live up to expectations. But that's part of the fun, and helps to explain why the box office results have moved from the back pages of trade magazines to the front page of USA Today.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Monday, June 25, 2007

Evan Not-So-Mighty; 1408 Pretty Suite

There were two big surprises in this past weekend’s box-office derby, proving once again that no matter what the “experts” think, the filmgoers always have the final say. Evan Almighty, the Steve Carell-starring sequel to the Jim Carrey hit Bruce Almighty, took first place honors with $31.2 million at the box office, but was considerably lower than most forecasters had predicted. Mostly negative reviews and poor word-of-mouth didn’t help. The Two Daves had estimates in the $45 - $48 million range, on par with other predictions, so this obviously took everyone by surprise – none more than distributor Universal, who are probably right now scrapping plans for a third entry. Does that mean we won’t get to see Stan Almighty starring David Cross?

The other upset was the strong showing of the horror tale 1408 starring John Cusack. The Stephen King thriller brought in $20.6 million over the weekend, for an impressive $7,700 per screen average on nearly 2,700 screens. We were also in line with other predictions in underestimating Mr. Cusack and Mr. Jackson. MGM finally has a hit? Now that’s scary. In more limited release, Angelina Jolie’s well-reviewed drama A Mighty Heart opened to $3.9 million in 1,355 screens for a fair $2,900 per screen average.

Of the holdovers, Silver Surfer dropped a whopping 65% to $20.0 million, while the leggy Knocked Up fell only 22% in its fourth week. The latter has now surpassed the $100 million mark, and looks to end with about $150 million!

Actual Grosses for the Weekend of June 22 thru June 24:
Rank Film Total
1 Evan Almighty $31.2 million
2 1408 $20.6 million
3 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer $20.0 million
4 Ocean's Thirteen $11.4 million
5 Knocked Up $11.0 million
6 Pirates of the Caribbean $7.2 million
7 Surf's Up $6.6 million
8 Shrek the Third $5.7 million
9 Nancy Drew $4.4 million
10 A Mighty Heart $3.9 million

© TLA Entertainment Group

Black Snake Moan

Black Snake Moan

(2007, 115 min) Advertised as leaning towards a trashy, exploitation flick, Black Snake Moan is really a thoughtful if slightly over-dramatic essay on love lost and regained, religion and southern blues. Lazurus (Samuel L. Jackson) is a man scorned by his wife, a righteous man, farming the land, respected by the townfolk. Rae (Christina Ricci) is the steamy, over-sexed town slut, trying to mend her ways with Ronnie (Justin Timberlake), the first man who she truly cares about. Accented at the beginning and near the end with archival footage of blues musician Son House, the film drives home the point that although much suffering may exist, man and woman can live harmoniously together, if the suffering can forge better character. Rae has been abused, (an overused cliche) hence her behavior, acting out the whore role. The film contains a goodly share of patented Ricci flesh, showing much battering and bruising by uncaring males. When Lazurus finds an unconscious Rae in his driveway, he takes her into his home, tends to her sickly self and chains her to the radiator, like the wild thing she is.

This is where director Craig Brewer (Hustle and Flow) could write his film like camp cult or drive deeper into character motivation and development. Wisely, he chooses the latter path. You see, Ronnie has left for the army and Rae must fend for herself. While living, chained in Lazurus’s house, she battles her demons, memories of abuse rushing into awareness. The chain becomes the metaphor of both love and hate, reminding her of her limits, yet strangely comforting as she twists it around her half-naked body.

As Rae slowly begins to re-integrate her personality with the help of Lazurus, Ronnie comes back to town unexpectedly, rejected by the armed forces for a panic disorder. He goes on a rampage after discovering Rae is missing, finally finding her in the house of Lazurus. The white trash aspects of the film are never played for laughs, and all characters are treated with respect for their situations, avoiding stereotyping.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Friday, June 22, 2007

Hostel: Part II

Hostel Part II

(2007, 93 min) Because of the financial success of its predecessor, the arrival of Hostel: Part II comes as no surprise. Unlike most hastily produced horror sequels, however, controversial auteur Eli Roth – the writer and director of the first installment – helms this equally unsettling project as well. Though it is, in many ways, the same film with a female cast, Roth makes slight improvements by widening the scope of the story, creating well-developed, more sympathetic characters and, of course, providing enough nausea-inducing gore to make the original look tame by comparison.

After a brief opening exposition featuring Paxton (Jay Hernandez), the severely wounded survivor of the first installment, Roth introduces three American girls studying in Rome. Perfectly cast according to type are Lauren German as Beth, the princess-like protagonist, Bijou Phillips as Whitney, her dangerously amorous best friend, and Heather Matarazzo (no stranger to suffering on celluloid) as Lorna, the hapless romantic virgin who they invite along on a trip to Prague out of pity. Their plans change when they meet Axelle (Vera Jordanova), a sultry nude art model who begins a flirtation with Beth and convinces the trio to join her on a trip to a Slovakian spa. Not surprisingly, they are led to a familiar, seemingly pleasant youth hostel where their passport pictures are scanned and sent to members of the Elite Hunting organization – initiating an international bidding war between wealthy psychopaths who will pay top dollar for the opportunity to torture and butcher our three lovely leads. Also introduced are lucky auction winners Stuart and Todd ("Desperate Housewives" alums Roger Bart and Richard Burgi), two unfulfilled married suburbanites who feel that offing a couple of innocent girls in cold blood will give them a hidden edge in their cut-throat business environments.

With a 10 million dollar budget, Roth is permitted to let his ghastly imagination run wild. He serves up graphic scenes of humiliation, torture, rape, cannibalism and an unforgettable, heavily eroticized lesbian blood bath involving a hay sickle. Considering all of the sadistic ultraviolence, drug use, nudity and sex in the film, it’s downright mind-boggling that it passed the eyes of the ordinarily conservative MPAA without an NC-17 rating. Those with moral objections and/or weak stomachs should, obviously, avoid it at all costs. The less sensitive of us who enjoy being shocked and can find humor in the unrelenting grotesqueries will not likely be disappointed. When all is said and done, Hostel: Part II delivers exactly what it promises in spades.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Thursday, June 21, 2007

30 Rock

30 Rock

(2006-2007, 950 min) Where did Alec Baldwin come from? Suddenly that magnificent bastard is on my TV every week, smirking and deadpanning his way into my one-liner-loving heart. It’s as if he was in comedy hibernation and has finally come out funnier, wiser and larger.

Ten years ago Baldwin was just a dull leading man who only attracted attention when he was marrying Kim Basinger, socking paparazzi or talking about his Schwetty Balls on Saturday Night Live. And although those bits were hilarious, they were nothing compared to the brilliantly preening alpha male he has brought to life in the first season of NBC’s "30 Rock."

Baldwin’s Jack Donaghy is an obsessive control freak and a high-powered executive who consistently outplays, outmaneuvers and outlasts his competition. Although he is a major player at GE (parent company of NBC) he spends most of his time micromanaging the marginal (and fictional) NBC sketch comedy show TGS and the personal life of its director, the charmingly goofy and antisocial Liz Lemon (Tina Fey). Best described by Salon’s TV critic Heather Havrilesky as “the human embodiment of a bad hair day”, Liz is Everywoman. Or at least, how Everywoman sees herself.

Liz, the kind of person who avoids effort in order to avoid failure, sets her standards early on in the season when she decides to stay with her loser beeper-salesman boyfriend because he is thoughtful enough to buy her a hamburger. She is the embodiment of the sad single lady: awkward, bitter, jealous and willing to settle. As a single lady well on her way to becoming a sad single lady, I heart her. In fact, most people I have encountered who have strong feelings about this show seem to also be women. I am willing to bet a shiny silver dollar that there is a correlation here.

Playing the role of the anti-Liz we have Jane Krakowski as Jenna, the female lead of TGS (short for The Girly Show) who has been abruptly pushed to the sidelines by her new male costar. Jenna is vapid, blonde and desperate for love and attention. Her insecurities cause as much self-destruction as Liz’s do, which makes them a modern-day Betty and Veronica, except neither one gets to go for a ride in Archie’s jalopy. Ever.

Tracy Morgan plays a caricatured version of himself: Tracy “Jordan”. This is as brilliant as it is ridiculous. Tracy fears the powerful cabal known as the “Black Mafia” (chaired by Bill Cosby), pitches a drama to a GE exec about the life of Thomas Jefferson where he plays every character (even Sally Hemmings) and does such a hilarious impersonation of Oprah that I had to rewind it three times. He is goofy and over-the-top and there’s not much more to say about his performance on the show other than it’s comedy at its most basic level. He’s just funny as hell.

To top it off, the cast and writers of TGS (many will recognize the schlumpy Judah Friedlander from Wet Hot American Summer and "Best Week Ever"); wide-eyed Kenneth the Page (who has a Southern accent despite apparently being from Western Pennsylvania) and Tracy’s devoted entourage are all hilarious as well. Look out for scene-stealing guest appearances by Isabella Rossellini as Jack’s ex-wife and Paul Reubens (Pee-Wee Herman) as Gerhardt, the last living Hapsburg.

"30 Rock" is smart, funny and quick. Every episode has left me wishing it had lasted longer than a measly half-hour. I can’t imagine anyone would be disappointed.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Box Office Predictions 6/22/07 - 6/24/07

David Gorgos: Is the Carell mighter than the Carrey? We’ll find out this weekend when Evan Almighty, the heavily hyped and reportedly very expensive sequel to Bruce Almighty, floods into over 3500 theaters. The first film opened over Memorial Day weekend and was a surprisingly huge smash, grossing $68 million over its first three days. Steve Carell, despite his newfound stardom, is not quite at Jim Carrey’s level, and the trailer is frankly a bore. I’ll still bet that its PG rating and status as a sequel will result in a draw of around $13,000 per screen and $45.5 million over the entire weekend. 1408, which looks at first glance to be a remake of Vacancy, will probably reflect the poor grosses of previous horror entries despite its PG-13 rating and the Stephen King credentials. It will struggle to break $5000 per screen and $12 million. Intelligent dramas have also had a hard time of late, and the depressing/inspiring story of journalist Daniel Pearl and his courageous wife Mariane (played by Angelina Jolie) should be no different. A Mighty Heart is opening semiwide in 1350 theaters, and will not have the big per-screen average it could have grabbed by hitting arthouses first. Expect a gross of just over $5 million. For holdovers, Fantastic Four will get hit hard by Evan in addition to the usual big drop suffered by sequels and sci-fi flicks. A 60% drop actually seems conservative. Knocked Up has remained strong and continues to face no direct competition. Me? I’m staying home and watching Duck, You Sucker!

David Bleiler: Bye bye Bruce, hello Evan. God has a new favorite, and his name is Steve Carell. Taking over the lead in Evan Almighty, the sequel to the Jim Carrey blockbuster Bruce Almighty, Carell gets his first chance since 40-Year-Old Virgin to flex his box-office muscles in a major Hollywood production. Even with costar Morgan Freeman back as The Almighty, this won’t quite see the kind of knockout grosses the original commanded. As star of a cult TV show and two theatrical hits to date, Carell is no Jim Carrey – but give him time. Look for Evan to gross over the weekend in the high $40 millions, down a bit from the original’s $67.9 million three-day gross – but still very respectable. The other wide-release opener is the John Cusack thriller 1408, penned from a Stephen King story. Horror tales have been slipping lately, and it’s not a franchise, so this should be somewhere between Hostel 2 ($8.2 million) and Hannibal Rising ($13.1 million). Opening in limited release is A Mighty Heart, starring Angelina Jolie as Mariane Pearl, wife of slain journalist Daniel Pearl. Serious fare in summer is risky (the terrific Cinderella Man underperformed; Crash proved to be the least successful Best Film winner as far as ticket sales), but good reviews and media attention on Mrs. Pitt could propel this past the $5 million mark.

Our Predictions
Film Gorgos Bleiler
Evan Almighty $45.5 million $48.5 million
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer $22.6 million $27.2 million
1408 $12.2 million $11.7 million
Ocean's Thirteen $11.4 million $11.4 million
Knocked Up $10.2 million $9.3 million
Pirates of the Caribbean 3 $6.3 million $6.9 million
Surf's Up $5.3 million $5.5 million
A Mighty Heart $5.3 million $5.4 million
Shrek the Third $4.9 million $5.0 million
Nancy Drew $3.4 million $3.9 million
Theater counts obtained at www.boxofficemojo.com

Content © TLA Entertainment Group

Monday, June 18, 2007

Fantastic: Yes. Nancy: Without a clue.

The respected Lew Irwin said in today's Studio Briefing, "Twentieth Century Fox's decision to produce Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer in such a way that it would receive a PG rating apparently paid off in spades for the studio over the weekend. The film defied analysts' predictions of a $30-million opening and grossed nearly twice that amount -- an estimated $57.4 million -- to take the top spot at the box office." Hey buddy, what analysts were you listening to?

Yeah, the two Daves' predictions were a bit low, but were still within 8% of the final gross. However, only one Dave correctly predicted that Nancy Drew would not be a big draw, averaging under $2800 per screen like just about every other tween movie aimed at girls. OK, we heard of one senile great-grandmother who showed up but kept asking where Bonita Granville was. Both of us bombed on Surf's Up, thinking that it would have a similarly small drop as other well-reviewed animated films. But we underestimated the small-fry drawing power of Fantastic Four and its PG rating, siphoning an extra couple million clams away from the penguins. The rest of the top 10 had predictable declines, including the sharp downward spiral of Hostel Part II.

Schadenfreude alert: We overestimated the pull of DOA: Dead or Alive, which pulled in a whopping $516 per theater for just $260,713 total. Wow. Harvey is probably stewing, trying to figure out how he can fire himself. Next week will be a tough one to predict, with Evan Almighty and 1408 vying for eyeballs in the multiplexes, and the Angelina Jolie wildcard A Mighty Heart hitting the arthouse venues.

Actual Grosses for the Weekend of June 15 thru June 17:
Rank Film Total
1 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surver $58.1 million
2 Ocean's Thirteen $19.7 million
3 Knocked Up $14.1 million
4 Pirates of the Caribbean $12.4 million
5 Surf's Up $9.3 million
6 Shrek the Third $9.0 million
7 Nancy Drew $6.8 million
8 Hostel Part II $3.0 million
9 Mr. Brooks $2.9 million
10 Spider-Man 3 $2.5 million
© TLA Entertainment Group

Resistance

Resistance

(2003, 92 min) The eye soars over idyllic, gently rolling hills of pastoral calm, until it suddenly comes upon the charred remains of a plane; a lone man crawls away from the wreckage. It's January 16th, 1944, in Nazi-occupied Belgium. The plane was flying reconnaissance for the upcoming Allied invasion. The Germans have experts coming from Berlin to examine the plane's recorder, which may still hold the position of targets and navigation codes.

The local Resistance conceals and cares for Ted Brice (Bill Paxton), the sole survivor of the crash. They decide as a group not to risk exposure by recovering the plane's recorder, determining that it must have been destroyed. But one night someone kills the soldiers guarding the plane and takes away the reconnaissance information before it is retrieved by the Nazis. Eleven villagers are hanged in reprisal. While the townsfolk suspect the American, they are not sure.

Ted, increasingly restless in his confinement, becomes enchanted with Claire (Julia Ormond), the woman who risks her life to nurse him. Her husband is absent, on a mission for the Resistance; while their marriage was affectionate, there was no shared love. Ted and Claire come to form a family unit with a young boy who is estranged from his brutal collaborator father and his weak, compliant mother. They share a brief period of domesticity before the war reasserts itself with unrelenting, deadly effect.

Resistance delineates the small, human moments which underlie history’s grand events. Perceptive, subtle performances describe the emotional complications that inform all human endeavors. While not a great film, Resistance is a thoughtful meditation on the unceasing desire for connection and the unexpected capacity for sacrifice contained in any human heart.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Gracie

Gracie

(2007, 95 min) Gracie is a sweet reminiscence on events from producer and costar Andrew Shue’s own family history. It’s 1978 in South Orange, NJ. Fifteen-year-old Gracie Bowen lives with her parents and three brothers; the males of the family are totally soccer-obsessed, their days revolving around practices and games. Her older brother Johnny is the star of the high school varsity soccer team, but he always has time for Gracie: he protects her and encourages her. He is her inspiration. Losing him in a car accident devastates the family: Johnny was their cool head and kind heart. And Gracie has lost her defender.

When Gracie decides to sign up for the soccer team as tribute to her brother’s memory, she meets a flood of resistance. There is no girls’ soccer, and the idea of her playing on the boys’ team slams into a brick wall. Her conventional mom (Elisabeth Shue, producer Andrew Shue’s real-life sister) worries that she’ll be an outcast, and her traditionalist dad (Dermot Mulroney) holds the popular opinion that girls can’t hold their own against the guys. But Gracie goes up against it all, rebounding from defeats and roadblocks, and gaining timely support from Title 9 ("No person in the United States shall, on the basis of sex, be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any education program or activity receiving Federal financial assistance"). Prevaling stereotypes and beliefs meet nascent feminist sensibilities, and some minds are opened to new possibilities.

Director Davis Guggenheim’s (An Inconvenient Truth, and Elisabeth Shue’s husband) benevolent treatment and the casts’ thoughtfully considered performances elevate this standard underdog story, based on true events. The portrayals are imbued with affectionate respect for their characters; Carly Schroeder is especially engaging as Gracie.

Gracie will be particularly appreciated by soccer moms and dads and kids. It could be paired with Offside, a film about young women attempting to enter the stadium in Tehran to watch a soccer match (women are barred by law from attending sporting events in Iran).

© TLA Entertainment Group

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Box Office Predictions 6/15/07 - 6/17/07

David Bleiler: Can a sequel to a bad movie actually make more money than the original? We’re about to find out this weekend with the opening of Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer. Opening on more than 3,800 screens, the Marvel Comics crew could do just that thanks to a massive media blitz and those cool theater lobby standees with the Silver Surfer in all his 3-D glory. The original grossed $56.1 million in its opening weekend in 2005, and that’s quite a chunk of change. Look for this one to come very close. The other newcomer, Nancy Drew, starring Julia Roberts’ niece Emma (there was a time you would have said Eric’s daughter), opens on over 2,400 screens, and should see modest results in the low $10 million range. This will be the first time since 1939 when little Bonita Granville portrayed her that Nancy has been on the big screen. That could in itself comment on its theatrical viability. But, then, who would have expected Princess Diaries to become a franchise – never underestimate the power of the teenage girl. Of the holdovers, expect Knocked Up to continue its impressive run with a drop somewhere in the 25%-35% range. Next weekend, Shrek the Third will become the second film of 2007 to surpass $300 million domestic gross; the first being, of course, Spider-Man 3.

David Gorgos: I'm not a comic book reader, but I have managed to pick up one thing about The Fantastic Four: People are excited about the Silver Surfer. I think his presence alone will be enough to overcome the bad taste that the first movie left in everyone's mouth, and will average over $15,000 per screen for another smash opening. Movies aimed at precocious girls have been incredibly consistent at the box office. Harriet the Spy: $6.6 million. Madeline: 6.4 million. Even Ella Enchanted only scored $6.2 million (with inflation, numbers are actually shrinking over the years). This should make Nancy Drew very easy to predict. Not listed below but worth noting is yet another impending Weinstein disaster: DOA: Dead or Alive, an exploitation movie inexplicably conceived as PG-13, will open to less than $1 million in 500 theatres. Once seen as independent gurus, their new company has been so underwhelming that comparisons to Dino De Laurentiis or Lord Lew "Low" Grade would be insulting. Envisioning a second Miramax, they have instead resurrected Cannon.

Our Predictions
Film Gorgos Bleiler
Fantastic Four 2 $53.2 million $53.5 million
Ocean's Thirteen $18.1 million $19.7 million
Knocked Up $14.1 million $12.1 million
Pirates of the Caribbean 3 $12.7 million $11.5 million
Surf's Up $11.4 million $11.2 million
Nancy Drew $6.2 million $10.8 million
Shrek the Third $7.7 million $7.7 million
Hostel Part II $3.1 million $3.7 million
Mr. Brooks $2.7 million $2.6 million
Spider-Man 3 $2.2 million $2.4 million
Theater counts obtained at www.boxofficemojo.com

Content © TLA Entertainment Group

The Lookout

The Lookout

(2007, 99 min) Chris Pratt (Joseph Gordon-Levitt) was the king of high school: a senior, star of the hockey team, basking in strong friendships and the love of a beautiful girl, his future seemed secure. Son of a wealthy town father, he was known and liked throughout his community. Four years later, he’s living in a decrepit apartment in a seedy part of town. He needs to check a list every morning to make sure he takes care of the most basic, banal tasks (like having breakfast). His life imploded when his speeding car ran into a threshing machine. He now spends his days in rehab classes, retraining his mind after a catastrophic head injury; his nights are spent as the janitor of the town bank. He aspires to be a teller. He misses his friends.

Chris meets Gary Spargo (Matthew Goode, a long way from “Miss Marple” and Match Point), who says he briefly dated Chris’ sister. Gary zeroes in on the empty, unfulfilled spaces in Chris’ once privileged life — friendship, intimacy, pride — and acerbates his dissatisfactions to manipulate and control. Chris feels empowered by the sudden rush of apparent camaraderie and goodwill, but his roommate Lewis (Jeff Daniels) smells a rat . . . Lewis is blind, but sees what Chris can’t. Or won’t. Then Gary starts talking bank heist.

First-time feature director Scott Frank also wrote the script (as he did for The Interpreter, Out of Sight, Get Shorty and others), and delivers an immediately involving and tightly structured thriller. The ensemble deliver concise and potent performances, and the film moves with focused intent, without extraneous baggage. The Lookout is satisfying and reflective, an intelligent examination of loss and betrayal and possible redemption.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Monday, June 11, 2007

Ocean Takes #1 Spot: More Squall Than Tsunami

As expected, Ocean’s Thirteen conned its way to the top spot at the box office last weekend, grossing just over $36 million in 3,565 theaters. That is slightly below the first two films’ opening of $38.1 for Eleven in 2001 and $39.1 for Twelve in 2004. Could this signal an end to the series? Let’s just see if it has legs. David Gorgos was in the 95% accuracy range with his guess. Pirates grabbed the second spot, just knocking out Knocked Up with $21.2 million (a 52% drop), compared to the latter’s $19.6 million (a good 36% drop, which suggests this should play through the summer). Though the Two Daves were very close on these picks, Bleiler came closest on both predictions. The animated family film Surf’s Up was nearly stranded on the beach with a below-expectations but respectable gross of $17.6 million. The horror tale Hostel Part II was DOA. Next week’s big release is yet another sequel, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer.

Actual Grosses for the Weekend of June 8 thru June 10:
Rank Film Total
1 Ocean's Thirteen $36.1 million
2 Pirates of the Caribbean $21.1 million
3 Knocked Up $19.6 million
4 Surf's Up $17.6 million
5 Shrek the Third $15.3 million
6 Hostel Part II $8.2 million
7 Mr. Brooks $4.9 million
8 Spider-Man 3 $4.3 million
9 Waitress $1.6 million
10 Disturbia / Gracie / Once (tie) $0.5 million
© TLA Entertainment Group

Offside

Offside

(2007, 93 min) A man searches frantically outside Azadi Stadium in Tehran. Iran is playing to qualify for the 2005 World Cup, and his granddaughter is trying to sneak in. Since she is Iranian, she will need to disguise herself as a male: Iranian women are not allowed to attend sporting events. She is found out and placed in a holding pen with other women who made the same attempt. They spend the game able to hear every roar and cheer, just yards from a view of the action.

As they wait in confinement to be sent to jail, they talk about the Gender Apartheid Law and Islamic texts, about foreign women allowed access to the stadium they cannot legally enter, about Iranian spectators killed during matches, about the differences between city living and country living, and, of course, about soccer. The soldiers, not much older than the girls they guard, spout the official line regarding their attempts to enter the stadium; but their declarations of policy are often rote and ambivalent. It becomes evident that not all Iranians support the incarceration or the laws which dictate it.

Director Jafar Panahi successfully executes a comedic treatment of a serious subject. Shooting during the actual event with non-professionals lends a documentary feel to the film; Panahi's reputation in Iran (his films are banned there) added production complications and a wary energy to mirror that of the corralled young women. He portrays an environment simultaneously so alien in its societal mores and so familiar in its human element. Offside doesn't require a knowledge of soccer to be appreciated.

Offside could be double-billed with the slighter but heartfelt Gracie, the story of a Jersey girl's desire to play competitive soccer in 1978.

© TLA Entertainment Group

The Italian

The Italian

(2005, 99 min) Six-year-old Vanya is just another commodity in the profitable Russian orphan trade. His orphanage exemplifies the open market of the former Soviet Union, replete with infinite, intermingled layers of corruption and bureaucracy, and graft an accepted and acknowledged factor of any business transaction. The orphanage is a repository for the rejected, the marginalized and the lost; it is its own maladapted family, from the youngest child to the oldest caretaker. Indeed, some of the caretakers have been in this system their whole lives.

Vanya has been chosen for a wealthy couple from Italy, garnering him the nickname "The Italian." He worries that his mother won't be able to find him if she comes for him after he moves, a possibility that others tell him is highly improbable. But when another mother comes for her child after he has been adopted, Vanya's trepidation grows. He learns to read so he can examine his files, looking for any information that will help him find his mother. With opportune help from sympathetic sources, he begins his odyssey to find his mother, a woman who is only a name and an ephemeral emotion to him.

The Italian is an effective and unexpected blend of quasi-documentary grit and fairy tale hyperrealism. Kolya Spiridonov is remarkable as young Vanya, whose journey encapsulates the eternal struggle for the survival of both body and soul. His trek takes on the aura of pilgrimage as he encounters the best and the worst of humankind: ogres and penitents, sinners and saints. The Italian is an involving revelation, another filmic glimpse into the tormented Russian psyche.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Friday, June 8, 2007

Breach

Breach

(2007, 111 min) Following on the heels of The Good Shepherd, we are given another considered drama based on intelligence activity. This time, it’s a dramatized account of a true story: the single greatest failure to the FBI community to date, the counter-intelligence mayhem created by one Robert Hanssen, an agent who leaked documents and revealed the identities of at least twenty agents to the Russians for over twenty years. Billy Ray (Shattered Glass) scripts and directs this high impact story with finesse, attributable to the extra-fine acting of Chris Cooper (as Hanssen) and the better than average work of Ryan Phillippe (who plays Eric O’Neill, the agent planted to spy on the spy). Laura Linney as agent Burroughs, heads up the ultra-secret internal affairs group that orchestrates the trap that ultimately ensnares agent Hanssen. Out of necessity, the storyline stays mostly on the surface, Billy Ray wisely avoids adding his own subtext, neither political nor psychological to the linear narrative.

What is ambiguous, and probably so in reality, is the motivation behind the actions by Hannsen. Clearly stating that it wasn’t for the money, the audience is left to draw their own conclusions based on the fleshing out of Hannsen’s character. He is a devout Catholic, going to Mass every day, yet surreptiously videotapes his wife and himself during their lovemaking sessions. We come to understand that this is an extremely arrogant man, angry with the intelligence community at large and holding himself as superior in intelligence to all other agents. This is probably the motive. He did it because he could. Simple, chilling but almost assuredly true.

The key to the success of this film is obviously the command exhibited by Cooper. He brings the tonal shadings of characterization first glimpsed in American Beauty. The homophobia, extreme nationalism, and adherence to “family” values are a veneer to the underbelly of an amoral monster, barely able to contain his nihilistic rage. Breach engages the viewer from the first frame and refuses to let go until the final, memorable image of Cooper, alone with his crime.

© TLA Entertainment Group

Thursday, June 7, 2007

Bug

Bug

(2007, 102 min) Based on the off-Broadway play by Steppenwolf Theater actor and writer Tracy Letts, Bug uses dialogue and a claustrophobic atmosphere to present a relatively short, socially conscious allegory of psychological horror and paranoia in the Bush Administration’s America. It proves to be one of the most engrossing and well-executed films from director William Friedkin since The Exorcist and showcases extraordinarily brave and appropriately over-the-top performances from Ashley Judd and Michael Shannon - a frequently unrecognizable character actor who originated his role on stages in New York and London.

Judd plays Agnes, a haggard alcoholic waitress living in a drab motel room in the Oklahoma desert. She carries a heavy nervous energy. Her son went missing in a supermarket years prior and she begins receiving mysterious phone calls just after Goss (Harry Connick Jr.), her egomaniacally abusive husband, is released from prison. She finds much comfort after meeting and shacking up with Peter (Shannon), a sweet-natured veteran who shares a similarly hopeless outlook on life. As the two get to know each other, Agnes reveals the devastating sadness of her past. Peter, in return, informs her that he was used as a lab rat in experiments by the US government, is absent from his military duties without proper leave and is likely being sought by Army intelligence. He believes that the government has implanted near-microscopic aphids under his skin and that Agnes, through contact, is in an equal amount of danger.

Soon set into motion is a chain of drastic actions inspired by extreme paranoia and a desperate loneliness that is healed only by the fact that each gives validation to their many combined suspicions and fears. Culminating within the deepest levels of schizophrenia, Agnes and Peter turn her room into a safe haven using aluminum foil, antiseptic and precautionary self-mutilation. By the time the film reaches its disturbing final act, the pair will stop at nothing to protect one another from the malevolent authority figures that they believe are watching and waiting from just beyond the front door.

Audiences expecting the creepy crawly horror outing that Lions Gate Films offered through a somewhat manipulative and misleading marketing strategy are better off renting 2006’s Slither. Bug is, above all else, a character study and a remarkably thought-provoking one at that. Due to the unapologetically violent nature of the film and its late-May theatrical release, neither Judd nor Shannon is likely to receive Oscar® nominations, though countless statuettes have been awarded to actors for far less effort. Also notable in the only supporting roles are Connick Jr., Lynn Collins (The Merchant of Venice) and Brian F. O’Byrne (Million Dollar Baby).

© TLA Entertainment Group

Severance

Severance

(2006, 95 min) A collection of office stereotypes from multinational munitions company Palisade Defence is on a team-building weekend in Eastern Europe. Their tour bus meets a fallen tree, blocking their progress. The driver, a local, refuses to take an alternate road leading to the same destination. So you know that the tree is no accident and bad things will happen if they take that path. But apparently none of these guys has ever seen a cheesy comedy horror slasher flick before. (Cheesy in a good way.)

They trudge through the Hungarian forest, viewing the circumstances through their own personal filters (middle-management claptrap, toadyism, drug haze, social ineptitude, nascent insanity, corporate conformity and — rarest of the rare — basic common sense). They find a building that they take as the company lodge, but uncover files that evidence its earlier uses: insane asylum, prison, Nazi torture chamber. Their internecine bickering turns to uneasy awareness of the forces around them, as they uncover some buried history about Palisade itself.

Unsurprisingly, these purveyors of sophisticated weapons of mass destruction find themselves on the receiving end of some rudimentary weapons of individual destruction. Methods of execution are varied and inventive, and there’s no shortage of blood. It’s totally derivative and hackneyed, but grudgingly redeemed by some pretty good performances, some clever ideas, some snappy editing and a total lack of pretension. If you can take the gore, Severance can be a guilty pleasure.

But I have to ask: It was a team-building weekend, right? Why didn’t they just join together and move the damned tree?

© TLA Entertainment Group

Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Box Office Predictions 6/8/07 - 6/10/07

David Gorgos: No matter how good a film is, the general public is going to prejudge it based on what came before. Mission: Impossible III, a terrific and well-reviewed action pic, was a disappointment at the box office because 1) Mission: Impossible II sucked, big time and 2) Tom Cruise went batshit crazy. This is a long-winded way of saying that while the cast of Ocean's Thirteen is still beloved, and early reviews are positive, Ocean's Twelve left a bad taste in the public's mouth. Expect a slight drop-off from Twelve's numbers, especially given the stiff competition. Kids love penguins, but animation releases have been fairly unpredictable this past year. Also with good advanced buzz, Surf's Up could either tank or be a smash. Since I'm a wimp, I'm hedging my bet somewhere in the middle with $7000 per screen. The first Hostel was a hit given its rough January release date; with no horror competition, the sequel should open a bit better despite all the blockbusters competing for space. And even against these strong openers, I expect Knocked Up to have a relatively small drop-off in its second week, a real test in its quest to surpass the huge total of The 40-Year-Old Virgin.

David Bleiler: George Clooney asked in the first Ocean’s Eleven, “You in or you out?” Expect a lot of “in” this weekend as the second sequel, Ocean's Thirteen, is back in Vegas and back in form. At over 3,400 theaters, this will see the #1 spot probably in the low $40 million range – great word-of-mouth could push it higher. The animated comedy Surf’s Up, with more cute, smart-alecky penguins, should do better than Barnyard but not as strong as either Happy Feet or Ice Age. Look for this in the low $20 millions. Of the holdovers, look for Knocked Up to have the best legs. On Monday, it actually beat Pirates for the top spot, suggesting its weekend drop will be small (25%-35%). Don’t look for horror flick du jour, Hostel 2, to surpass the original’s $19.5 million income unless bored teens tire of con men, pirates and one-night stands.

Our Predictions
Film Gorgos Bleiler
Ocean's Thirteen $34.5 million $42.5 million
Knocked Up $22.1 million $21.5 million
Surf's Up $21.3 million $22.3 million
Pirates of the Caribbean 3 $19.0 million $20.0 million
Hostel Part II $19.8 million $15.0 million
Shrek the Third $14.0 million $15.4 million
Mr. Brooks $5.2 million $5.9 million
Spider-Man 3 $3.8 million $3.8 million
Waitress $1.4 million $1.5 million
Gracie $0.7 million $0.9 million
Theater counts obtained at www.boxofficemojo.com

Content © TLA Entertainment Group

Ocean's Thirteen

Oceans Thirteen

(2007, 122 min) “You think we need one more?” Danny Ocean (George Clooney) asked Rusty Ryan (Brad Pitt) in Ocean’s 11, referring to the number of associates in their planned heist of three casinos. They could have easily been talking about the now-profitable film series itself, for after their convoluted exercise in grifting in Ocean’s Twelve, Danny, Rusty and the rest of the gang are all back in form and where they belong – Las Vegas – in Ocean’s Thirteen, an entertaining bit of whimsy, larceny and sleight of hand that won’t knock you out like the first film did, but will definitely keep you smiling. Good to have you back, boys.

The time is the present, and adding to the ever-changing Las Vegas skyline is casino mogul Willy Bank (Al Pacino), who with his new garish uber-casino has just scammed Reuben Tishkoff (Elliott Gould) both out of his land and a partnership in the casino that would have been worth millions. When Reuben suffers a near-fatal heart attack, Danny gets the crew together for a little revenge, Ocean style.

Danny first offers Bank a “Billy Martin,” a second chance (don’t worry, the jargon and expressions that kept you scratching your head in the first two films are here as well – and they’re still fun to try to figure out). Bank declines, of course, in such a stylishly nasty way as to make him an even more hissable villain than Terry Benedict (Andy Garcia) was in the first film.

This sets the stage for the sting, including the now-familiar planning-of-the-plan, the preparation and the eventual execution of the con, which includes no less than guaranteeing that the new casino will hand out $500 million in winnings on its opening night, hitting Bank where it hurts the most – the bottom line.

Standing in their way is a new super-computer that is impregnable. It has the ability to monitor every single customer in the casino and gauge whether they are cheating or not. Hey, it’s the 21st century. Thrown into this mix are a funny running gag about an investigator for a prestigious hotel award suffering all sorts of indignities, and a subplot about a plan to steal diamonds, which involves a fake nose, a helicopter and seducing a “cougar” (in this instance, the ravishing Ellen Barkin).

Director Steven Soderbergh keeps the action sailing at a nice pace, and once again gives his ensemble lots of breathing room. Sure these guys can do this in their sleep, now, but no one is sleepwalking through this – the rapport is still fresh and the banter still amusing. Some of it we’ve seen before, but the plot twists are still unpredictable and the con still draws you in. The Vegas locations only add to the fun of it all, though Bank’s casino, unlike Terry Benedict’s which was actually filmed at the Bellagio, is a studio set.

All this unfolds under the neon-drenched glow of the new Vegas, but the ghost of old Vegas haunts quite a few scenes, including a surprisingly moving exchange between Danny and Rusty reminiscing about the old days. Back in the day, when a player shook the hand of Frank Sinatra, they were expected to adhere to a code. Both Willy and Reuben shook Sinatra’s hand; that Banks willingly violates that code makes his comeuppance all the more enjoyable. That Ocean’s Thirteen still adheres to its own code makes this third trek worth visiting yet again such an engaging group of old friends.

© TLA Entertainment Group