TLA Attacks the Movies

Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Rats Scurry to #1; Bruce Lives Hard

Rat-a-Tat-Tat: As expected, the animated Pixar feature Ratatouille was #1 at the box office last weekend, bringing in $47.0 million. Less than Disney/Pixar's Cars ($60.1) but more than Meet the Robinsons ($25.1), the well-reviewed kidpic looks like it should be in the mid-range of animated hits – with a potential gross that could top $150 million. The Two Daves were both within 10% accuracy on their estimates. Industry estimates were as high as $60 million for the Parisian-set comedy, which should benefit over the next few weeks from good word of mouth.

With a Vengeance: Bruce Willis showed there’s plenty of life after 50 as the fourth film in the Die Hard series, Live Free or Die Hard, brought in nearly $10,000 per screen over the weekend for an action-packed $33.4 million. Add the $15 million from the pre-Friday opening, and the film has already grossed $48.4 million. The second week may suffer slightly from Transformers opening, but Bruce should see this installment easily pass the $100 million mark. Dave B. was closest with his guess of $32.0 million.

Doctor, Doctor: The Two Daves both enthusiastically overestimated the opening for Michael Moore’s acclaimed documentary on the U.S. health care system, Sicko. Playing in only 441 theaters, the film brought in over $10,000 per screen, down from Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 numbers, but still excellent for a documentary. The theater count should expand and the final result should show that audiences care as much for the environment (An Inconvenient Truth finished with $24.1 million) as they do about health care.

Nighty Night: That great cast of actresses including Meryl Streep, Glenn Close and Vanessa Redgrave in Evening could only produce $3.5 million on nearly 1,000 screens, proving once again that serious drama can be a serious problem when released in the summer.

Holdovers: Pirates of the Caribbean and Knocked Up had the best weekly drops, both only in the low 30% range. At this rate, Knocked Up will surely pass $150 million. That’s about half of Pirates, which this week will become the third film of the year to pass $300 million.

Actual Grosses for Weekend June 29 thru July 1:

Rank	Film	Total
1	Ratatouille	$47.0 million
2	Live Free or Die Hard	$33.4 million
3	Evan Almighty	$15.1 million
4	1408	$10.7 million
5	Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer	$9.1 million
6	Knocked Up	$7.3 million
7	Ocean's Thirteen	$6.1 million
8	Pirates of the Caribbean 3	$5.0 million
9	Sicko	$4.5 million
10	Evening	$3.5 million

– David Bleiler

Ratatouille image © Buena Vista Pictures

Box office figures © Box Office Mojo

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Sicko

(2007, 113 min) Michael Moore just gets better and better.

This time he takes on the multi-billion-dollar morass known as the U.S. health care system . . . the term “health care” embodying the height of ironic sarcasm. He starts with individual stories: There’s the solid middle-class couple bankrupted by co-pays and deductibles when both suffered catastrophic illnesses. There’s the woman whose ambulance ride from a car accident was denied payment because it wasn’t pre-approved. Or the young woman whose claim was denied because she was “too young” to have the illness she contracted. Logic has no foothold here; the only motivation is profit, the guiding principle by which Nixon set up HMOs in the 1970s. (Nixon’s the one.)

Bankrupt if you’re lucky, dead if you’re not. A mother loses her daughter, a wife loses her husband, when their claims are determined to be ineligible by the insurance companies that took payments for years.

Moore visits several industrialized countries with universal health care, only to find that the evils of the medical care system that we’ve been taught to fear apparently don’t exist. People get to pick their doctors and hospitals in Canada and Great Britain and France. The patients seem happy with the care they receive and the doctors seem content with their working conditions. Medications cost next to nothing. No one there can quite grasp the idea of being denied heath care because you can’t afford it.

Moore’s command of the medium has matured; he controls the film’s ebb and flow masterfully. His ability to make complex information accessible is joined with an impressive ability to move from the humorous to the utterly serious — and take the audience with him. He is unabashedly polemical, and makes no bones about his beliefs and predispositions. While Canada, Great Britain and France certainly are not pristine paradises, human life does seem to be held to a different standard, with a different sense of community and responsibility to compatriots. In the U.S., profits are made when care is denied; in Great Britain, doctors get bonuses for healthy patients. In the U.S., some hospitals put drugged, disoriented patients into cabs to be dumped at the doorstep of other institutions when their coverage runs out; in France, there are 24-hour-a-day house calls. (Moore offers a compelling theory as to the real reason our government and media encourages us to hate the French.) As one Brit put it, “If you can find money to kill people, you can find money to help people.”

Since 9/11, there have been many fundraisers held to help pay the medical costs of volunteer first responders. Since they weren’t city employees, they weren’t covered. Moore takes a group of them by boat, first to Gitmo looking for some of the medical care given to suspected Al-Qaeda detainees. No help there, so onward to Havana, where medical care is available and affordable. There’s something shameful about watching a group of fellow Americans, Americans who jumped in to assist the fallen in a moment of national nightmare, getting medical treatment they couldn’t afford and a grateful nation wouldn’t supply; and getting it from a country defined as our enemy for half a century.

Washington has more health care lobbyists than congressmen, and “contributions” to the lawmakers is one payout the insurance companies don’t do on the cheap. All of this leads inexorably to Moore’s summation question: “Who are we?” Ponder that one while reeling from the gut punch that is Sicko.

– Ann Yarabinee

Box Office Predictions 6/29/07 - 7/1/07

David Bleiler: It’s a showdown between the Cowboy and the Rat for the weekend’s top spot at the box office – my money is on the Rat, as in Ratatouille. Disney’s latest animated pic is getting great pre-release buzz, and kids will be anxious for something actually original this summer in contrast to retreads of ogres, pirates and superheroes. Opening on over 3,500 screens, this has the potential to be in the Cars and Ice Age range, which would place its per screen average between $14,000 (Ice Age) and $15,000 (Cars). Let’s call it $14,500 per screen for $50.8 million. The only thing it has going against it is that name.

Cowboy John McClane, alias Bruce Willis, is back in the fourth installment of the Die Hard series, the last entry being 12 years ago. Another instance of very good pre-release buzz, Live Free or Die Hard should quench the thirst for a balls-to-the-wall actioner, especially in light of the Silver Surfer wiping out. Willis may be getting a little long in the tooth, but fans probably won’t mind. This won’t see the great numbers of the other films, but on almost 3,200 screens, it should speed to a respectable $10,000 per screen, putting it on par with another sequel, Ocean’s Thirteen.

One of the most anticipated releases of the summer has to be Sicko, Michael Moore’s documentary about our country’s health care system. Moore received a six-minute standing ovation at Cannes where the film premiered, and reviews so far have been tremendous. Documentaries are always a tough sell, but on the heels of his smash Fahrenheit 9/11 and the surprising success of Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth, this should see good numbers. On 441 screens, which will create a larger demand, the film should generate about $15,000 per screen, coming in at $6.6 million.

The other new release, Evening is getting fair buzz at best, and even with that great cast (Meryl Streep, Glenn Close, Vanessa Redgrave), returns should only be in the Mighty Heart range. Sorry Meryl, this devil wears nada.

David Gorgos: Pixar films have been very consistent, averaging over $15,000 per screen in their opening weekends. However, I don't have the same faith in Ratatouille, as the voice talent is nowhere near that of Cars, Disney is coming off a disappointing run for Meet the Robinsons, and rats as featured players are unproven at best and box office poison at worst (Flushed Away anyone?). It should fail to break the $50 million barrier that has been expected of Pixar in its opening weekend.

Despite a nonstop publicity blitz, I don't hear masses shouting "Bruuuuuuce" this summer. Live Free or Die Hard should garner a moderate opening but will not rejuvenate the franchise.

We're informed by boxofficemojo.com that Sicko is only opening on 441 screens, half that of Fahrenheit 9/11. As long as it stays with a theater count below 1000, I expect Sicko to hit similar per-screen heights of about $25,000. At the current theater count, that gives it an opening of $11 million; if it gets more screens, then expect the total to rise accordingly.

The final semi-wide release, Evening, has no buzz whatsoever despite its stellar cast, and will probably open out of the top 10.

Our Predictions

Film	Gorgos	Bleiler
Ratatouille	$42.6 million	$50.8 million
Live Free or Die Hard	$23.7 million	$32.0 million
Evan Almighty	$13.1 million	$17.2 million
Sicko	$11.0 million	$6.6 million
1408	$10.5 million	$12.4 million
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer	$9.0 million	$9.3 million
Knocked Up	$7.9 million	$7.9 million
Ocean's Thirteen	$6.8 million	$6.8 million
Pirates of the Caribbean 3	$3.9 million	$4.1 million
Evening	$2.3 million	$3.2 million

Theater counts obtained at www.boxofficemojo.com

Content © TLA Entertainment Group

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Shooter

(2007, 125 min) Antoine Fuqua (Training Day) once again helms a high budget Hollywood retro action flick, with Mark Wahlberg in the key role as covert sniper Bob Lee Swagger. Danny Glover and Ned Beatty represent the military and legislative branches of the U.S. government, here painted as morally bankrupt and, in today’s parlance, pawns in a giant conspiracy driven shadow government. This is the underpinning that holds this adrenaline romp together and gives it a somewhat serious tone, although the subject matter is thin and at times murky in conception. The simple premise that later evolves into something more complex, has Swagger tapped by the FBI to consult on the possible attempt of the president’s life, overseeing an operation that supposedly will thwart the action. This turns out to be a trap set to blame the attempt on Swagger himself, setting him on a fugitive flight from the government bad guys and presenting a good series of action sequences set first in Philadelphia, then Kentucky, Montana and beyond. Michael Peña as Nick Memphis lends a supporting hand as an agent done wrong by the agency who comes over to Swagger’s side and learns to fight the good fight.

Filled with spectacular explosions as a backdrop to slow-motion wide-angle shots of Wahlberg striding heroically through the landscape, there is much to admire in the well-edited pacing of this somewhat traditional action adventure. At times, some of the dialog and postures of the main characters verge on the preposterous, but these are countered by passages of logic and clarity, coloring the whole affair as slightly uneven in tone and texture. The script manages to blame the Iraq war, revolutions in Africa, even the Kennedy assassination on this shadowy government conspiracy. Of course, there is ample material that could lend credence to these allegations and the script wisely glosses over details to deliver a damning message that bumps this film up a notch.

Overall, Shooter entertains throughout its two-hour run and doesn’t take itself too seriously.

– Max Brinck

Dissecting Success

1408 brings in $20 million and is a big hit; Evan Almighty pulls in $31 million and is a big disappointment. Welcome to the bizarro world of Hollywood, where success and failure is all in how you spin it. Then again, is that really much different from the rest of the business world?

Let's say you launch an ad campaign for your business. When the campaign is over, you see that sales are actually down 5%. The kneejerk reaction is that the campaign failed. But look deeper. Was there a problem with your product? Increased competition? A seasonal swoon? A failing economy? Maybe without the campaign, business would have been down 20% instead, and the ads were actually keeping you afloat.

In scientific circles, results are explained through repeated trials and comparisons with control groups. But once business products (from sodas to cars to movies) are released into the world, pretty much everything is an isolated experiment, and reasons for success or failure can be inferred but never proven.

We work in the world of DVD and digital downloads, and use comp (comparison) titles to try to gauge future success. So is Evan Almighty a failure because it grossed half what Bruce Almighty did? Or is it a success because it was Steve Carell's biggest opening weekend? And should Carell be punished because the special effects made the budget balloon?

The quality of a film matters too, though not necessarily from a critical perspective. Eddie Murphy is no longer a reliable box office draw, yet Norbit was a hit. Why? Probably because it delivered the quality that moviegoers want: Eddie doing multiple characters, fat suits, and lowbrow comedy. Jim Carrey is likewise not a reliable draw, but Bruce captured the imagination of moviegoers. A dude given the powers of God? Cool! A dude forced to build an ark and collect animals? Hey, that sounds like work. Imagine how much worse Evan would have opened if it wasn't a sequel.

Of course, it's impossible to pinpoint exactly why Evan failed to live up to expectations. But that's part of the fun, and helps to explain why the box office results have moved from the back pages of trade magazines to the front page of USA Today.

– David Gorgos

Monday, June 25, 2007

Evan Not-So-Mighty; 1408 Pretty Suite

There were two big surprises in this past weekend’s box-office derby, proving once again that no matter what the “experts” think, the filmgoers always have the final say. Evan Almighty, the Steve Carell-starring sequel to the Jim Carrey hit Bruce Almighty, took first place honors with $31.2 million at the box office, but was considerably lower than most forecasters had predicted. Mostly negative reviews and poor word-of-mouth didn’t help. The Two Daves had estimates in the $45 - $48 million range, on par with other predictions, so this obviously took everyone by surprise – none more than distributor Universal, who are probably right now scrapping plans for a third entry. Does that mean we won’t get to see Stan Almighty starring David Cross?

The other upset was the strong showing of the horror tale 1408 starring John Cusack. The Stephen King thriller brought in $20.6 million over the weekend, for an impressive $7,700 per screen average on nearly 2,700 screens. We were also in line with other predictions in underestimating Mr. Cusack and Mr. Jackson. MGM finally has a hit? Now that’s scary. In more limited release, Angelina Jolie’s well-reviewed drama A Mighty Heart opened to $3.9 million in 1,355 screens for a fair $2,900 per screen average.

Of the holdovers, Silver Surfer dropped a whopping 65% to $20.0 million, while the leggy Knocked Up fell only 22% in its fourth week. The latter has now surpassed the $100 million mark, and looks to end with about $150 million!

Actual Grosses for the Weekend of June 22 thru June 24:

Rank	Film	Total
1	Evan Almighty	$31.2 million
2	1408	$20.6 million
3	Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer	$20.0 million
4	Ocean's Thirteen	$11.4 million
5	Knocked Up	$11.0 million
6	Pirates of the Caribbean	$7.2 million
7	Surf's Up	$6.6 million
8	Shrek the Third	$5.7 million
9	Nancy Drew	$4.4 million
10	A Mighty Heart	$3.9 million

– David Bleiler

Black Snake Moan

(2007, 115 min) Advertised as leaning towards a trashy, exploitation flick, Black Snake Moan is really a thoughtful if slightly over-dramatic essay on love lost and regained, religion and southern blues. Lazurus (Samuel L. Jackson) is a man scorned by his wife, a righteous man, farming the land, respected by the townfolk. Rae (Christina Ricci) is the steamy, over-sexed town slut, trying to mend her ways with Ronnie (Justin Timberlake), the first man who she truly cares about. Accented at the beginning and near the end with archival footage of blues musician Son House, the film drives home the point that although much suffering may exist, man and woman can live harmoniously together, if the suffering can forge better character. Rae has been abused, (an overused cliche) hence her behavior, acting out the whore role. The film contains a goodly share of patented Ricci flesh, showing much battering and bruising by uncaring males. When Lazurus finds an unconscious Rae in his driveway, he takes her into his home, tends to her sickly self and chains her to the radiator, like the wild thing she is.

This is where director Craig Brewer (Hustle and Flow) could write his film like camp cult or drive deeper into character motivation and development. Wisely, he chooses the latter path. You see, Ronnie has left for the army and Rae must fend for herself. While living, chained in Lazurus’s house, she battles her demons, memories of abuse rushing into awareness. The chain becomes the metaphor of both love and hate, reminding her of her limits, yet strangely comforting as she twists it around her half-naked body.

As Rae slowly begins to re-integrate her personality with the help of Lazurus, Ronnie comes back to town unexpectedly, rejected by the armed forces for a panic disorder. He goes on a rampage after discovering Rae is missing, finally finding her in the house of Lazurus. The white trash aspects of the film are never played for laughs, and all characters are treated with respect for their situations, avoiding stereotyping.

– Max Brinck

Friday, June 22, 2007

Hostel: Part II

(2007, 93 min) Because of the financial success of its predecessor, the arrival of Hostel: Part II comes as no surprise. Unlike most hastily produced horror sequels, however, controversial auteur Eli Roth – the writer and director of the first installment – helms this equally unsettling project as well. Though it is, in many ways, the same film with a female cast, Roth makes slight improvements by widening the scope of the story, creating well-developed, more sympathetic characters and, of course, providing enough nausea-inducing gore to make the original look tame by comparison.

After a brief opening exposition featuring Paxton (Jay Hernandez), the severely wounded survivor of the first installment, Roth introduces three American girls studying in Rome. Perfectly cast according to type are Lauren German as Beth, the princess-like protagonist, Bijou Phillips as Whitney, her dangerously amorous best friend, and Heather Matarazzo (no stranger to suffering on celluloid) as Lorna, the hapless romantic virgin who they invite along on a trip to Prague out of pity. Their plans change when they meet Axelle (Vera Jordanova), a sultry nude art model who begins a flirtation with Beth and convinces the trio to join her on a trip to a Slovakian spa. Not surprisingly, they are led to a familiar, seemingly pleasant youth hostel where their passport pictures are scanned and sent to members of the Elite Hunting organization – initiating an international bidding war between wealthy psychopaths who will pay top dollar for the opportunity to torture and butcher our three lovely leads. Also introduced are lucky auction winners Stuart and Todd ("Desperate Housewives" alums Roger Bart and Richard Burgi), two unfulfilled married suburbanites who feel that offing a couple of innocent girls in cold blood will give them a hidden edge in their cut-throat business environments.

With a 10 million dollar budget, Roth is permitted to let his ghastly imagination run wild. He serves up graphic scenes of humiliation, torture, rape, cannibalism and an unforgettable, heavily eroticized lesbian blood bath involving a hay sickle. Considering all of the sadistic ultraviolence, drug use, nudity and sex in the film, it’s downright mind-boggling that it passed the eyes of the ordinarily conservative MPAA without an NC-17 rating. Those with moral objections and/or weak stomachs should, obviously, avoid it at all costs. The less sensitive of us who enjoy being shocked and can find humor in the unrelenting grotesqueries will not likely be disappointed. When all is said and done, Hostel: Part II delivers exactly what it promises in spades.

– Robert O'Neill

Thursday, June 21, 2007

30 Rock

(2006-2007, 950 min) Where did Alec Baldwin come from? Suddenly that magnificent bastard is on my TV every week, smirking and deadpanning his way into my one-liner-loving heart. It’s as if he was in comedy hibernation and has finally come out funnier, wiser and larger.

Ten years ago Baldwin was just a dull leading man who only attracted attention when he was marrying Kim Basinger, socking paparazzi or talking about his Schwetty Balls on Saturday Night Live. And although those bits were hilarious, they were nothing compared to the brilliantly preening alpha male he has brought to life in the first season of NBC’s "30 Rock."

Baldwin’s Jack Donaghy is an obsessive control freak and a high-powered executive who consistently outplays, outmaneuvers and outlasts his competition. Although he is a major player at GE (parent company of NBC) he spends most of his time micromanaging the marginal (and fictional) NBC sketch comedy show TGS and the personal life of its director, the charmingly goofy and antisocial Liz Lemon (Tina Fey). Best described by Salon’s TV critic Heather Havrilesky as “the human embodiment of a bad hair day”, Liz is Everywoman. Or at least, how Everywoman sees herself.

Liz, the kind of person who avoids effort in order to avoid failure, sets her standards early on in the season when she decides to stay with her loser beeper-salesman boyfriend because he is thoughtful enough to buy her a hamburger. She is the embodiment of the sad single lady: awkward, bitter, jealous and willing to settle. As a single lady well on her way to becoming a sad single lady, I heart her. In fact, most people I have encountered who have strong feelings about this show seem to also be women. I am willing to bet a shiny silver dollar that there is a correlation here.

Playing the role of the anti-Liz we have Jane Krakowski as Jenna, the female lead of TGS (short for The Girly Show) who has been abruptly pushed to the sidelines by her new male costar. Jenna is vapid, blonde and desperate for love and attention. Her insecurities cause as much self-destruction as Liz’s do, which makes them a modern-day Betty and Veronica, except neither one gets to go for a ride in Archie’s jalopy. Ever.

Tracy Morgan plays a caricatured version of himself: Tracy “Jordan”. This is as brilliant as it is ridiculous. Tracy fears the powerful cabal known as the “Black Mafia” (chaired by Bill Cosby), pitches a drama to a GE exec about the life of Thomas Jefferson where he plays every character (even Sally Hemmings) and does such a hilarious impersonation of Oprah that I had to rewind it three times. He is goofy and over-the-top and there’s not much more to say about his performance on the show other than it’s comedy at its most basic level. He’s just funny as hell.

To top it off, the cast and writers of TGS (many will recognize the schlumpy Judah Friedlander from Wet Hot American Summer and "Best Week Ever"); wide-eyed Kenneth the Page (who has a Southern accent despite apparently being from Western Pennsylvania) and Tracy’s devoted entourage are all hilarious as well. Look out for scene-stealing guest appearances by Isabella Rossellini as Jack’s ex-wife and Paul Reubens (Pee-Wee Herman) as Gerhardt, the last living Hapsburg.

"30 Rock" is smart, funny and quick. Every episode has left me wishing it had lasted longer than a measly half-hour. I can’t imagine anyone would be disappointed.

– Rachel J. Cox

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Box Office Predictions 6/22/07 - 6/24/07

David Gorgos: Is the Carell mighter than the Carrey? We’ll find out this weekend when Evan Almighty, the heavily hyped and reportedly very expensive sequel to Bruce Almighty, floods into over 3500 theaters. The first film opened over Memorial Day weekend and was a surprisingly huge smash, grossing $68 million over its first three days. Steve Carell, despite his newfound stardom, is not quite at Jim Carrey’s level, and the trailer is frankly a bore. I’ll still bet that its PG rating and status as a sequel will result in a draw of around $13,000 per screen and $45.5 million over the entire weekend. 1408, which looks at first glance to be a remake of Vacancy, will probably reflect the poor grosses of previous horror entries despite its PG-13 rating and the Stephen King credentials. It will struggle to break $5000 per screen and $12 million. Intelligent dramas have also had a hard time of late, and the depressing/inspiring story of journalist Daniel Pearl and his courageous wife Mariane (played by Angelina Jolie) should be no different. A Mighty Heart is opening semiwide in 1350 theaters, and will not have the big per-screen average it could have grabbed by hitting arthouses first. Expect a gross of just over $5 million. For holdovers, Fantastic Four will get hit hard by Evan in addition to the usual big drop suffered by sequels and sci-fi flicks. A 60% drop actually seems conservative. Knocked Up has remained strong and continues to face no direct competition. Me? I’m staying home and watching Duck, You Sucker!

David Bleiler: Bye bye Bruce, hello Evan. God has a new favorite, and his name is Steve Carell. Taking over the lead in Evan Almighty, the sequel to the Jim Carrey blockbuster Bruce Almighty, Carell gets his first chance since 40-Year-Old Virgin to flex his box-office muscles in a major Hollywood production. Even with costar Morgan Freeman back as The Almighty, this won’t quite see the kind of knockout grosses the original commanded. As star of a cult TV show and two theatrical hits to date, Carell is no Jim Carrey – but give him time. Look for Evan to gross over the weekend in the high $40 millions, down a bit from the original’s $67.9 million three-day gross – but still very respectable. The other wide-release opener is the John Cusack thriller 1408, penned from a Stephen King story. Horror tales have been slipping lately, and it’s not a franchise, so this should be somewhere between Hostel 2 ($8.2 million) and Hannibal Rising ($13.1 million). Opening in limited release is A Mighty Heart, starring Angelina Jolie as Mariane Pearl, wife of slain journalist Daniel Pearl. Serious fare in summer is risky (the terrific Cinderella Man underperformed; Crash proved to be the least successful Best Film winner as far as ticket sales), but good reviews and media attention on Mrs. Pitt could propel this past the $5 million mark.