Fantastic: Yes. Nancy: Without a clue.

The respected Lew Irwin said in today's Studio Briefing, "Twentieth Century Fox's decision to produce Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer in such a way that it would receive a PG rating apparently paid off in spades for the studio over the weekend. The film defied analysts' predictions of a $30-million opening and grossed nearly twice that amount -- an estimated $57.4 million -- to take the top spot at the box office." Hey buddy, what analysts were you listening to?

Yeah, the two Daves' predictions were a bit low, but were still within 8% of the final gross. However, only one Dave correctly predicted that Nancy Drew would not be a big draw, averaging under $2800 per screen like just about every other tween movie aimed at girls. OK, we heard of one senile great-grandmother who showed up but kept asking where Bonita Granville was. Both of us bombed on Surf's Up, thinking that it would have a similarly small drop as other well-reviewed animated films. But we underestimated the small-fry drawing power of Fantastic Four and its PG rating, siphoning an extra couple million clams away from the penguins. The rest of the top 10 had predictable declines, including the sharp downward spiral of Hostel Part II.

Schadenfreude alert: We overestimated the pull of DOA: Dead or Alive, which pulled in a whopping $516 per theater for just $260,713 total. Wow. Harvey is probably stewing, trying to figure out how he can fire himself. Next week will be a tough one to predict, with Evan Almighty and 1408 vying for eyeballs in the multiplexes, and the Angelina Jolie wildcard A Mighty Heart hitting the arthouse venues.

Actual Grosses for the Weekend of June 15 thru June 17:

Rank	Film	Total
1	Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surver	$58.1 million
2	Ocean's Thirteen	$19.7 million
3	Knocked Up	$14.1 million
4	Pirates of the Caribbean	$12.4 million
5	Surf's Up	$9.3 million
6	Shrek the Third	$9.0 million
7	Nancy Drew	$6.8 million
8	Hostel Part II	$3.0 million
9	Mr. Brooks	$2.9 million
10	Spider-Man 3	$2.5 million

© TLA Entertainment Group

Resistance

(2003, 92 min) The eye soars over idyllic, gently rolling hills of pastoral calm, until it suddenly comes upon the charred remains of a plane; a lone man crawls away from the wreckage. It's January 16th, 1944, in Nazi-occupied Belgium. The plane was flying reconnaissance for the upcoming Allied invasion. The Germans have experts coming from Berlin to examine the plane's recorder, which may still hold the position of targets and navigation codes.

The local Resistance conceals and cares for Ted Brice (Bill Paxton), the sole survivor of the crash. They decide as a group not to risk exposure by recovering the plane's recorder, determining that it must have been destroyed. But one night someone kills the soldiers guarding the plane and takes away the reconnaissance information before it is retrieved by the Nazis. Eleven villagers are hanged in reprisal. While the townsfolk suspect the American, they are not sure.

Ted, increasingly restless in his confinement, becomes enchanted with Claire (Julia Ormond), the woman who risks her life to nurse him. Her husband is absent, on a mission for the Resistance; while their marriage was affectionate, there was no shared love. Ted and Claire come to form a family unit with a young boy who is estranged from his brutal collaborator father and his weak, compliant mother. They share a brief period of domesticity before the war reasserts itself with unrelenting, deadly effect.

Resistance delineates the small, human moments which underlie history’s grand events. Perceptive, subtle performances describe the emotional complications that inform all human endeavors. While not a great film, Resistance is a thoughtful meditation on the unceasing desire for connection and the unexpected capacity for sacrifice contained in any human heart.

– Ann Yarabinee

© TLA Entertainment Group

Gracie

(2007, 95 min) Gracie is a sweet reminiscence on events from producer and costar Andrew Shue’s own family history. It’s 1978 in South Orange, NJ. Fifteen-year-old Gracie Bowen lives with her parents and three brothers; the males of the family are totally soccer-obsessed, their days revolving around practices and games. Her older brother Johnny is the star of the high school varsity soccer team, but he always has time for Gracie: he protects her and encourages her. He is her inspiration. Losing him in a car accident devastates the family: Johnny was their cool head and kind heart. And Gracie has lost her defender.

When Gracie decides to sign up for the soccer team as tribute to her brother’s memory, she meets a flood of resistance. There is no girls’ soccer, and the idea of her playing on the boys’ team slams into a brick wall. Her conventional mom (Elisabeth Shue, producer Andrew Shue’s real-life sister) worries that she’ll be an outcast, and her traditionalist dad (Dermot Mulroney) holds the popular opinion that girls can’t hold their own against the guys. But Gracie goes up against it all, rebounding from defeats and roadblocks, and gaining timely support from Title 9 ("No person in the United States shall, on the basis of sex, be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any education program or activity receiving Federal financial assistance"). Prevaling stereotypes and beliefs meet nascent feminist sensibilities, and some minds are opened to new possibilities.

Director Davis Guggenheim’s (An Inconvenient Truth, and Elisabeth Shue’s husband) benevolent treatment and the casts’ thoughtfully considered performances elevate this standard underdog story, based on true events. The portrayals are imbued with affectionate respect for their characters; Carly Schroeder is especially engaging as Gracie.

Gracie will be particularly appreciated by soccer moms and dads and kids. It could be paired with Offside, a film about young women attempting to enter the stadium in Tehran to watch a soccer match (women are barred by law from attending sporting events in Iran).

– Ann Yarabinee

© TLA Entertainment Group

Box Office Predictions 6/15/07 - 6/17/07

David Bleiler: Can a sequel to a bad movie actually make more money than the original? We’re about to find out this weekend with the opening of Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer. Opening on more than 3,800 screens, the Marvel Comics crew could do just that thanks to a massive media blitz and those cool theater lobby standees with the Silver Surfer in all his 3-D glory. The original grossed $56.1 million in its opening weekend in 2005, and that’s quite a chunk of change. Look for this one to come very close. The other newcomer, Nancy Drew, starring Julia Roberts’ niece Emma (there was a time you would have said Eric’s daughter), opens on over 2,400 screens, and should see modest results in the low $10 million range. This will be the first time since 1939 when little Bonita Granville portrayed her that Nancy has been on the big screen. That could in itself comment on its theatrical viability. But, then, who would have expected Princess Diaries to become a franchise – never underestimate the power of the teenage girl. Of the holdovers, expect Knocked Up to continue its impressive run with a drop somewhere in the 25%-35% range. Next weekend, Shrek the Third will become the second film of 2007 to surpass $300 million domestic gross; the first being, of course, Spider-Man 3.

David Gorgos: I'm not a comic book reader, but I have managed to pick up one thing about The Fantastic Four: People are excited about the Silver Surfer. I think his presence alone will be enough to overcome the bad taste that the first movie left in everyone's mouth, and will average over $15,000 per screen for another smash opening. Movies aimed at precocious girls have been incredibly consistent at the box office. Harriet the Spy: $6.6 million. Madeline: 6.4 million. Even Ella Enchanted only scored $6.2 million (with inflation, numbers are actually shrinking over the years). This should make Nancy Drew very easy to predict. Not listed below but worth noting is yet another impending Weinstein disaster: DOA: Dead or Alive, an exploitation movie inexplicably conceived as PG-13, will open to less than $1 million in 500 theatres. Once seen as independent gurus, their new company has been so underwhelming that comparisons to Dino De Laurentiis or Lord Lew "Low" Grade would be insulting. Envisioning a second Miramax, they have instead resurrected Cannon.

Our Predictions

Film	Gorgos	Bleiler
Fantastic Four 2	$53.2 million	$53.5 million
Ocean's Thirteen	$18.1 million	$19.7 million
Knocked Up	$14.1 million	$12.1 million
Pirates of the Caribbean 3	$12.7 million	$11.5 million
Surf's Up	$11.4 million	$11.2 million
Nancy Drew	$6.2 million	$10.8 million
Shrek the Third	$7.7 million	$7.7 million
Hostel Part II	$3.1 million	$3.7 million
Mr. Brooks	$2.7 million	$2.6 million
Spider-Man 3	$2.2 million	$2.4 million

Theater counts obtained at www.boxofficemojo.com

Content © TLA Entertainment Group

The Lookout

(2007, 99 min) Chris Pratt (Joseph Gordon-Levitt) was the king of high school: a senior, star of the hockey team, basking in strong friendships and the love of a beautiful girl, his future seemed secure. Son of a wealthy town father, he was known and liked throughout his community. Four years later, he’s living in a decrepit apartment in a seedy part of town. He needs to check a list every morning to make sure he takes care of the most basic, banal tasks (like having breakfast). His life imploded when his speeding car ran into a threshing machine. He now spends his days in rehab classes, retraining his mind after a catastrophic head injury; his nights are spent as the janitor of the town bank. He aspires to be a teller. He misses his friends.

Chris meets Gary Spargo (Matthew Goode, a long way from “Miss Marple” and Match Point), who says he briefly dated Chris’ sister. Gary zeroes in on the empty, unfulfilled spaces in Chris’ once privileged life — friendship, intimacy, pride — and acerbates his dissatisfactions to manipulate and control. Chris feels empowered by the sudden rush of apparent camaraderie and goodwill, but his roommate Lewis (Jeff Daniels) smells a rat . . . Lewis is blind, but sees what Chris can’t. Or won’t. Then Gary starts talking bank heist.

First-time feature director Scott Frank also wrote the script (as he did for The Interpreter, Out of Sight, Get Shorty and others), and delivers an immediately involving and tightly structured thriller. The ensemble deliver concise and potent performances, and the film moves with focused intent, without extraneous baggage. The Lookout is satisfying and reflective, an intelligent examination of loss and betrayal and possible redemption.

– Ann Yarabinee

© TLA Entertainment Group

Ocean Takes #1 Spot: More Squall Than Tsunami

As expected, Ocean’s Thirteen conned its way to the top spot at the box office last weekend, grossing just over $36 million in 3,565 theaters. That is slightly below the first two films’ opening of $38.1 for Eleven in 2001 and $39.1 for Twelve in 2004. Could this signal an end to the series? Let’s just see if it has legs. David Gorgos was in the 95% accuracy range with his guess. Pirates grabbed the second spot, just knocking out Knocked Up with $21.2 million (a 52% drop), compared to the latter’s $19.6 million (a good 36% drop, which suggests this should play through the summer). Though the Two Daves were very close on these picks, Bleiler came closest on both predictions. The animated family film Surf’s Up was nearly stranded on the beach with a below-expectations but respectable gross of $17.6 million. The horror tale Hostel Part II was DOA. Next week’s big release is yet another sequel, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer.

Actual Grosses for the Weekend of June 8 thru June 10:

Rank	Film	Total
1	Ocean's Thirteen	$36.1 million
2	Pirates of the Caribbean	$21.1 million
3	Knocked Up	$19.6 million
4	Surf's Up	$17.6 million
5	Shrek the Third	$15.3 million
6	Hostel Part II	$8.2 million
7	Mr. Brooks	$4.9 million
8	Spider-Man 3	$4.3 million
9	Waitress	$1.6 million
10	Disturbia / Gracie / Once (tie)	$0.5 million

© TLA Entertainment Group

Offside

(2007, 93 min) A man searches frantically outside Azadi Stadium in Tehran. Iran is playing to qualify for the 2005 World Cup, and his granddaughter is trying to sneak in. Since she is Iranian, she will need to disguise herself as a male: Iranian women are not allowed to attend sporting events. She is found out and placed in a holding pen with other women who made the same attempt. They spend the game able to hear every roar and cheer, just yards from a view of the action.

As they wait in confinement to be sent to jail, they talk about the Gender Apartheid Law and Islamic texts, about foreign women allowed access to the stadium they cannot legally enter, about Iranian spectators killed during matches, about the differences between city living and country living, and, of course, about soccer. The soldiers, not much older than the girls they guard, spout the official line regarding their attempts to enter the stadium; but their declarations of policy are often rote and ambivalent. It becomes evident that not all Iranians support the incarceration or the laws which dictate it.

Director Jafar Panahi successfully executes a comedic treatment of a serious subject. Shooting during the actual event with non-professionals lends a documentary feel to the film; Panahi's reputation in Iran (his films are banned there) added production complications and a wary energy to mirror that of the corralled young women. He portrays an environment simultaneously so alien in its societal mores and so familiar in its human element. Offside doesn't require a knowledge of soccer to be appreciated.

Offside could be double-billed with the slighter but heartfelt Gracie, the story of a Jersey girl's desire to play competitive soccer in 1978.

– Ann Yarabinee

© TLA Entertainment Group

The Italian

(2005, 99 min) Six-year-old Vanya is just another commodity in the profitable Russian orphan trade. His orphanage exemplifies the open market of the former Soviet Union, replete with infinite, intermingled layers of corruption and bureaucracy, and graft an accepted and acknowledged factor of any business transaction. The orphanage is a repository for the rejected, the marginalized and the lost; it is its own maladapted family, from the youngest child to the oldest caretaker. Indeed, some of the caretakers have been in this system their whole lives.

Vanya has been chosen for a wealthy couple from Italy, garnering him the nickname "The Italian." He worries that his mother won't be able to find him if she comes for him after he moves, a possibility that others tell him is highly improbable. But when another mother comes for her child after he has been adopted, Vanya's trepidation grows. He learns to read so he can examine his files, looking for any information that will help him find his mother. With opportune help from sympathetic sources, he begins his odyssey to find his mother, a woman who is only a name and an ephemeral emotion to him.

The Italian is an effective and unexpected blend of quasi-documentary grit and fairy tale hyperrealism. Kolya Spiridonov is remarkable as young Vanya, whose journey encapsulates the eternal struggle for the survival of both body and soul. His trek takes on the aura of pilgrimage as he encounters the best and the worst of humankind: ogres and penitents, sinners and saints. The Italian is an involving revelation, another filmic glimpse into the tormented Russian psyche.

– Ann Yarabinee

© TLA Entertainment Group

Breach

(2007, 111 min) Following on the heels of The Good Shepherd, we are given another considered drama based on intelligence activity. This time, it’s a dramatized account of a true story: the single greatest failure to the FBI community to date, the counter-intelligence mayhem created by one Robert Hanssen, an agent who leaked documents and revealed the identities of at least twenty agents to the Russians for over twenty years. Billy Ray (Shattered Glass) scripts and directs this high impact story with finesse, attributable to the extra-fine acting of Chris Cooper (as Hanssen) and the better than average work of Ryan Phillippe (who plays Eric O’Neill, the agent planted to spy on the spy). Laura Linney as agent Burroughs, heads up the ultra-secret internal affairs group that orchestrates the trap that ultimately ensnares agent Hanssen. Out of necessity, the storyline stays mostly on the surface, Billy Ray wisely avoids adding his own subtext, neither political nor psychological to the linear narrative.

What is ambiguous, and probably so in reality, is the motivation behind the actions by Hannsen. Clearly stating that it wasn’t for the money, the audience is left to draw their own conclusions based on the fleshing out of Hannsen’s character. He is a devout Catholic, going to Mass every day, yet surreptiously videotapes his wife and himself during their lovemaking sessions. We come to understand that this is an extremely arrogant man, angry with the intelligence community at large and holding himself as superior in intelligence to all other agents. This is probably the motive. He did it because he could. Simple, chilling but almost assuredly true.

The key to the success of this film is obviously the command exhibited by Cooper. He brings the tonal shadings of characterization first glimpsed in American Beauty. The homophobia, extreme nationalism, and adherence to “family” values are a veneer to the underbelly of an amoral monster, barely able to contain his nihilistic rage. Breach engages the viewer from the first frame and refuses to let go until the final, memorable image of Cooper, alone with his crime.

– Max Brinck

© TLA Entertainment Group

Bug

(2007, 102 min) Based on the off-Broadway play by Steppenwolf Theater actor and writer Tracy Letts, Bug uses dialogue and a claustrophobic atmosphere to present a relatively short, socially conscious allegory of psychological horror and paranoia in the Bush Administration’s America. It proves to be one of the most engrossing and well-executed films from director William Friedkin since The Exorcist and showcases extraordinarily brave and appropriately over-the-top performances from Ashley Judd and Michael Shannon - a frequently unrecognizable character actor who originated his role on stages in New York and London.

Judd plays Agnes, a haggard alcoholic waitress living in a drab motel room in the Oklahoma desert. She carries a heavy nervous energy. Her son went missing in a supermarket years prior and she begins receiving mysterious phone calls just after Goss (Harry Connick Jr.), her egomaniacally abusive husband, is released from prison. She finds much comfort after meeting and shacking up with Peter (Shannon), a sweet-natured veteran who shares a similarly hopeless outlook on life. As the two get to know each other, Agnes reveals the devastating sadness of her past. Peter, in return, informs her that he was used as a lab rat in experiments by the US government, is absent from his military duties without proper leave and is likely being sought by Army intelligence. He believes that the government has implanted near-microscopic aphids under his skin and that Agnes, through contact, is in an equal amount of danger.

Soon set into motion is a chain of drastic actions inspired by extreme paranoia and a desperate loneliness that is healed only by the fact that each gives validation to their many combined suspicions and fears. Culminating within the deepest levels of schizophrenia, Agnes and Peter turn her room into a safe haven using aluminum foil, antiseptic and precautionary self-mutilation. By the time the film reaches its disturbing final act, the pair will stop at nothing to protect one another from the malevolent authority figures that they believe are watching and waiting from just beyond the front door.

Audiences expecting the creepy crawly horror outing that Lions Gate Films offered through a somewhat manipulative and misleading marketing strategy are better off renting 2006’s Slither. Bug is, above all else, a character study and a remarkably thought-provoking one at that. Due to the unapologetically violent nature of the film and its late-May theatrical release, neither Judd nor Shannon is likely to receive Oscar® nominations, though countless statuettes have been awarded to actors for far less effort. Also notable in the only supporting roles are Connick Jr., Lynn Collins (The Merchant of Venice) and Brian F. O’Byrne (Million Dollar Baby).

– Robert O'Neill

© TLA Entertainment Group