The Bee That Stole Christmas

Maybe the audience does listen to the critics. Fred Claus opened well short of expectations in third place, proving yet again how hard it is to create a Christmas perennial. On a side note, what's the last Christmas song to become a classic? The most recent one I can think of is "Christmas Wrapping" by The Waitresses, and that was over two decades ago.

I was nearly dead-on with my Bee Movie and American Gangster predictions, with the animated flick taking a more modest drop than the adult-oriented epic. But my modest optimism for P2 was completely unfounded, which takes some pressure off what the heck to name the sequel (P2 2?). Lions for Lambs opened slightly worse than my guess, so it bears reminding: If voters can't even be bothered to show up at the polls, they certainly aren't going to pay $10 to get a lecture about the war.

Actual Grosses for the Weekend of November 9 thru 11:

Rank	Film	Total
1	Bee Movie	$25.6 million
2	American Gangster	$24.0 million
3	Fred Claus	$18.5 million
4	Lions for Lambs	$6.7 million
5	Dan in Real Life	$6.0 million
6	Saw IV	$4.9 million
7	The Game Plan	$2.5 million
8	30 Days of Night	$2.2 million
9	P2	$2.1 million
10	The Martian Child	$1.8 million

– David Gorgos

© TLA Entertainment Group

Bee Movie picture © Dreamworks / Paramount

Box office figures © Box Office Mojo

Box Office Predictions 11/9/07 - 11/11/07

David Gorgos: I couldn't have picked a better time to take a hiatus than the last few months. American Gangster almost doubled what I thought it would do, Martian Child tanked, Gone Baby Gone came and went. Well, this week doesn't look any easier. Will Fred Claus open big like Elf, or bomb like Surviving Christmas? Will P2 disappoint like so many horror flicks, despite the trailers that make it look scary and original? And will Lions for Lambs open like a Tom Cruise movie, or like a liberal Iraqi movie?

I'm hedging my bets on the latter two. Lions should do better than the other antiwar polemics due to the starpower, but will still result in one of the worst openings for Cruise, Robert Redford and Meryl Streep at around $8 million; its future is on DVD (sign up for a TLA Alert, hint hint). P2 likewise shouldn't be a disaster; $3000 per screen for a $6 million total is not out of the question. But since Fred Claus looks fun & upbeat from the commercials, and is probably critic-proof, it should break past $30 million to take first place. Despite the kiddie competition, Bee Movie should have a smaller week-to-week drop than American Gangster and sneak into second place.

Our Predictions

Film	David Gorgos
Fred Claus	$30.9 million
Bee Movie	$25.9 million
American Gangster	$23.1 million
Lions for Lambs	$8.1 million
P2	$6.2 million
Dan in Real Life	$4.9 million
Saw IV	$4.1 million
The Game Plan	$2.7 million
The Martian Child	$2.2 million
30 Days of Night	$1.8 million

Theater counts obtained at www.boxofficemojo.com

Content © TLA Entertainment Group

Fred Claus picture © Warner