Here's a dirty little secret: While we work in the world of DVD and are pretty damn good about figuring out what a film's potential is on the home video market, we are simply atrocious at predicting the box office numbers. The Two Daves (as we're called at TLA) have been participating in the Box Office Derby at Boxofficemojo.com for a while, and we're lucky if we crack the top 100. And we're looking to change all that.
By sharing our thoughts with you, we are holding ourselves up to public ridicule and embarassment if we don't deliver. So we're going deep into the thought tank and pulling out our best guesses for the weekend. And feel free to share your picks with us as well. We want to become better at this. Really we do.
David Gorgos ("Godard" on the derby): Knocked Up is a terrific movie, preview audiences are loving it, and it's being labeled the "sleeper hit" of the year. Before you go investing all your Hollywood Stock Exchange dollars in it, keep in mind that a true sleeper is one that starts out slow but does steady and strong business in the weeks ahead. And without any big stars, that should be exactly the case here. With 2873 screens, I'm still predicting a strong opening of $23.3 million ($8100 per screen), which would be ahead of the opening of The 40-Year-Old Virgin. With Kevin Costner losing his starpower, Mr. Brooks should do similar numbers to Fracture, bringing in about $4500 per screen for $11 million. And I don't see any buzz for Gracie, which should do about $2900 per screen for $2.8 million. All the big movies from last weekend should see fairly strong drops of 50-60%, except for Waitress, which continues to add screens.
David Bleiler ("Dave B." on the derby): Even with an expected 50% drop from last weekend’s record (three-day) holiday opening, Pirates of the Caribbean 3 should remain at the top spot at the box office this weekend with well over $50 million. Of the new releases, Knocked Up, the newest comedy from The 40-Year-Old Virgin director Judd Apatow, should be the highest grosser as pre-opening buzz is already calling this the comedy of the summer. Kevin Costner and Demi Moore, who each haven’t had a big hit in quite a while, team for the serial killer thriller Mr. Brooks, and its opening should be comparable to other recent openings by the two stars. This season’s little film that could, Waitress, should see a small drop off from its impressive art-house run.
| Film | Gorgos | Bleiler |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | $45.6 million | $55.7 million |
| Knocked Up | $23.3 million | $31.5 million |
| Shrek the Third | $26.5 million | $26.6 million |
| Mr. Brooks | $11.0 million | $12.0 million |
| Spider-Man 3 | $6.5 million | $7.3 million |
| Gracie | $2.8 million | $3.0 million |
| Waitress | $2.5 million | $2.2 million |
| Bug | $1.5 million | $1.5 million |
| 28 Weeks Later | $1.1 million | $1.4 million |
| Disturbia | $1.1 million | $1.1 million |
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